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Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: A graphical causal approach

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  • Alessio Moneta

    (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies)

Abstract

This paper develops a structural VAR methodology based on graphical models to identify the monetary policy shocks and to measure their macroeconomic effects. The advantage of this procedure is to work with testable overidentifying models, whose restrictions are derived by the partial correlations among residuals plus some institutional knowledge. This permits to test some restrictions on the reserve market used in several approaches existing in the literature. The main findings are that neither VAR innovations to federal funds rate nor innovations to nonborrowed reserves are good indicators of monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Moneta, 2004. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: A graphical causal approach," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 20, pages 39-62, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2004:i:20:p:39-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Steffen L. Lauritzen & Thomas S. Richardson, 2002. "Chain graph models and their causal interpretations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 321-348, August.
    7. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    8. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
    9. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September.
    3. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.

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