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Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe—Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Fasihi

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

  • Dmitrii Bogdanov

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

  • Christian Breyer

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

Abstract

Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh HHV (0.78 €/m 3 SNG ) and 88 €/MWh HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh HHV (0.68 €/m 3 SNG ) and 83 €/MWh HHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO 2 emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Fasihi & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Christian Breyer, 2017. "Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe—Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:306-:d:90805
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    Cited by:

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    7. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Analysing the techno-economic impact of e-fuels and e-chemicals production for exports and carbon dioxide removal on the energy system of sunbelt countries – Case of Egypt," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    8. Fasihi, Mahdi & Weiss, Robert & Savolainen, Jouni & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Global potential of green ammonia based on hybrid PV-wind power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    9. Child, Michael & Koskinen, Otto & Linnanen, Lassi & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 321-334.
    10. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
    11. Runge, Philipp & Sölch, Christian & Albert, Jakob & Wasserscheid, Peter & Zöttl, Gregor & Grimm, Veronika, 2019. "Economic comparison of different electric fuels for energy scenarios in 2035," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1078-1093.
    12. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    13. Christian Breyer & Mahdi Fasihi & Arman Aghahosseini, 2020. "Carbon dioxide direct air capture for effective climate change mitigation based on renewable electricity: a new type of energy system sector coupling," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 43-65, January.
    14. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Gulagi, Ashish & Fasihi, Mahdi & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Full energy sector transition towards 100% renewable energy supply: Integrating power, heat, transport and industry sectors including desalination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    15. Keiner, Dominik & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    16. Keiner, Dominik & Salcedo-Puerto, Orlando & Immonen, Ekaterina & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M. & Nizam, Yoosuf & Shadiya, Fathmath & Duval, Justine & Delahaye, Timur & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Powering an island energy system by offshore floating technologies towards 100% renewables: A case for the Maldives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    17. Müller, Viktor Paul & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2023. "Economic complexity of green hydrogen production technologies - a trade data-based analysis of country-specific industrial preconditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Lopez, Gabriel & Galimova, Tansu & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Towards defossilised steel: Supply chain options for a green European steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    19. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Christopher G. F. Bataille, 2020. "Physical and policy pathways to net‐zero emissions industry," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    21. Gulagi, Ashish & Ram, Manish & Solomon, A.A. & Khan, Musharof & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 899-920.
    22. Farajiamiri, Mina & Meyer, Jörn-Christian & Walther, Grit, 2023. "Multi-objective optimization of renewable fuel supply chains regarding cost, land use, and water use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).

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