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The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market--Model-based analysis until 2030


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  • Lochner, Stefan
  • Bothe, David


Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1518-1528

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:4:p:1518-1528

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Keywords: Natural gas supply Gas market modeling Natural gas supply costs;


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Cited by:
  1. Wang-Helmreich, Hanna & Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Natural Gas in Road Transportation - A Low-emission Bridging Technology?," EWI Working Papers, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln 2011-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  2. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2009. "Market Liberalization in the European Natural Gas Market - The Importance of Capacity Constraints and Efficiency Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 2697, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
  4. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
  5. Anatoliy G. Goncharuk, 2014. "Losers and Beneficiaries from the Growth of Natural Gas Prices," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 3(2), pages 117-126.


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