IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v175y2019icp205-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Yingjian
  • Hawkes, Adam

Abstract

The uncertainties in gas demand levels and geopolitical issues may lead to significant changes in global gas trade. This paper uses an agent-based model to simulate the alternative market futures under two demand trajectories: a baseline following current policy pledges until 2060 and another where demand shifts to a lower level in 2030. Endogenously generated capacity investments are driven by long-term bilateral contracts between importers and exporters, where investors are assumed to evaluate the potential risks of demand changes while making their decisions. The results suggest that, when the demand decreases in 2030, the Middle East takes the dominant position in Eastern Asia, whereas this role is occupied by North America in the current policy scenario. In addition, the impacts of a 25% tariff by China on U.S. natural gas are studied for both scenarios. The revenue of North American gas trade is only marginally affected by this tariff. Under the normal demand trajectory, the tariff influences the Chinese market more notably in the longer term when global supply is tightened by decommissioning. In the case of lower global gas demand, the market share of Russia in Western Europe could be threatened by increasing North American export there.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 205-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:205-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219304517
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Yusin, 2017. "Interdependence, issue importance, and the 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas conflict," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 199-209.
    2. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    3. Kumar, Satish & Kwon, Hyouk-Tae & Choi, Kwang-Ho & Hyun Cho, Jae & Lim, Wonsub & Moon, Il, 2011. "Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4097-4104, July.
    4. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    5. Khalilpour, Rajab & Karimi, I.A., 2012. "Evaluation of utilization alternatives for stranded natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 317-328.
    6. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    7. Anne Neumann & Sophia Rüster & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2015. "Long-Term Contracts in the Natural Gas Industry: Literature Survey and Data on 426 Contracts (1965-2014)," Data Documentation 77, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska, 2016. "Risks in global natural gas markets: Investment, hedging and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 468-479.
    9. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Steven A. Gabriel & Andy S. Kydes & Peter Whitman, 2001. "The National Energy Modeling System: A Large-Scale Energy-Economic Equilibrium Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(1), pages 14-25, February.
    11. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2018. "Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 820-834.
    12. Chen, Zhihua & An, Haizhong & An, Feng & Guan, Qing & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural risk evaluation of global gas trade by a network-based dynamics simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 457-471.
    13. Zhuang, Jifang & Gabriel, Steven A., 2008. "A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 113-147, January.
    14. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    15. Xunpeng, Shi & Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare & Tao, Jacqueline, 2017. "Global impact of uncertainties in China’s gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 382-394.
    16. Gambhir, Ajay & Napp, Tamaryn A. & Emmott, Christopher J.M. & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2014. "India's CO2 emissions pathways to 2050: Energy system, economic and fossil fuel impacts with and without carbon permit trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 791-801.
    17. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    18. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia, 2014. "Achieving negative emissions with BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in the power sector: New insights from the TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model France) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 967-975.
    19. Michael Levi, 2013. "Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 609-623, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenxiao Chu & Francesco Calise & Neven Duić & Poul Alberg Østergaard & Maria Vicidomini & Qiuwang Wang, 2020. "Recent Advances in Technology, Strategy and Application of Sustainable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Noor Yusuf & Tareq Al-Ansari, 2023. "Current and Future Role of Natural Gas Supply Chains in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Hydrogen Economy: A Comprehensive Review on Integrated Natural Gas Supply Chain Optimisation Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-33, November.
    3. Yuping Jin & Yanbin Yang & Wei Liu, 2022. "Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    4. Farag, Markos & Zaki, Chahir, 2021. "On the Determinants of Trade in Natural Gas: A Political Economy Approach," EWI Working Papers 2021-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zhensheng, 2020. "Analysis of the natural gas demand and subsidy in China: A multi-sectoral perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Cao, Xuewen & Yang, Jian & Zhang, Yue & Gao, Song & Bian, Jiang, 2022. "Process optimization, exergy and economic analysis of boil-off gas re-liquefaction processes for LNG carriers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Hyun-Seung Kim & Churl-Hee Cho, 2022. "An Economical Boil-Off Gas Management System for LNG Refueling Stations: Evaluation Using Scenario Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Wang, Wenya & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2022. "Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    2. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2018. "Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 820-834.
    3. Veronika Grimm & Lars Schewe & Martin Schmidt & Gregor Zöttl, 2019. "A multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(2), pages 223-255, April.
    4. Gong, Chengzhu & Wu, Desheng & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui, 2020. "Multi-agent mixed complementary simulation of natural gas upstream market liberalization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Baltensperger, Tobias & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2020. "Solving oligopolistic equilibrium problems with convex optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 44-52.
    6. Stevie Lochran, 2021. "GNOME: A Dynamic Dispatch and Investment Optimisation Model of the European Natural Gas Network and Its Suppliers," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-44, December.
    7. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    8. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    9. Crow, Daniel J.G. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A dynamic model of global natural gas supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 452-469.
    10. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    11. Adrienn Selei & Borbála Tóth & Gustav Resch & László Szabó & Lukas Liebmann & Péter Kaderják, 2017. "How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 54-69, March.
    12. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    13. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    14. E. Allevi & L. Boffino & M. E. Giuli & G. Oggioni, 2018. "Evaluating the impacts of the external supply risk in a natural gas supply chain: the case of the Italian market," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 347-384, February.
    15. Levasseur, Annie & Bahn, Olivier & Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier & Marinova, Mariya & Vaillancourt, Kathleen, 2017. "Assessing butanol from integrated forest biorefinery: A combined techno-economic and life cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 440-452.
    16. Hanley, Emma S. & Deane, JP & Gallachóir, BP Ó, 2018. "The role of hydrogen in low carbon energy futures–A review of existing perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3027-3045.
    17. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2016. "Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 646-656.
    18. Antoine Boubault & Nadia Maïzi, 2019. "Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    19. Feijoo, Felipe & Iyer, Gokul C. & Avraam, Charalampos & Siddiqui, Sauleh A. & Clarke, Leon E. & Sankaranarayanan, Sriram & Binsted, Matthew T. & Patel, Pralit L. & Prates, Nathalia C. & Torres-Alfaro,, 2018. "The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the United states," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 149-166.
    20. Zhang, Lingge & Yang, Dong & Wu, Shining & Luo, Meifeng, 2023. "Revisiting the pricing benchmarks for Asian LNG — An equilibrium analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:205-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.