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2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

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Author Info

  • Shaun Vorster

    ()
    (University of Stellenbosch Business School, PO Box 610, Bellville, 7535, South Africa)

  • Marius Ungerer

    ()
    (University of Stellenbosch Business School, PO Box 610, Bellville, 7535, South Africa)

  • Jako Volschenk

    ()
    (University of Stellenbosch Business School, PO Box 610, Bellville, 7535, South Africa)

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    Abstract

    Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT), with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts — either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e. , the “grim reaper” and the “fallen angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Sustainability.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (December)
    Pages: 1-51

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    Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:1-51:d:22479

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    Related research

    Keywords: aviation; biofuels; climate change; tourism; low-carbon; market-based mechanism; scenarios;

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    1. Stavins, Robert, 2001. "Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments," Discussion Papers dp-01-58, Resources For the Future.
    2. Dubois, Ghislain & Peeters, Paul & Ceron, Jean-Paul & Gössling, Stefan, 2011. "The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1031-1042.
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