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The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

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Author Info

  • Dubois, Ghislain
  • Peeters, Paul
  • Ceron, Jean-Paul
  • Gössling, Stefan
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    Abstract

    Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages: 1031-1042

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1031-1042

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    Related research

    Keywords: Tourism; Mobility; Climate change; Mitigation; Scenarios; Backcasting;

    References

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    1. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    2. Tight, M.R. & Bristow, A.L. & Pridmore, A. & May, A.D., 2005. "What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 235-244, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Filimonau, Viachaslau & Dickinson, Janet & Robbins, Derek & Reddy, Maharaj Vijay, 2013. "The role of ‘indirect’ greenhouse gas emissions in tourism: Assessing the hidden carbon impacts from a holiday package tour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-91.
    2. Shaun Vorster & Marius Ungerer & Jako Volschenk, 2012. "2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-51, December.

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