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Fueling the Future: A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Fuel Consumption Trends in U.S. Electricity Generation

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  • Md Monjur Hossain Bhuiyan

    (School of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

  • Ahmed Nazmus Sakib

    (School of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

  • Syed Ishmam Alawee

    (School of Data Science and Analytics, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

  • Talayeh Razzaghi

    (School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

Abstract

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides crucial data on monthly and annual fuel consumption for electricity generation. These data cover significant fuels, such as coal, petroleum liquids, petroleum coke, and natural gas. Fuel consumption patterns are highly dynamic and influenced by diverse factors. Understanding these fluctuations is essential for effective energy planning and decision making. This study outlines a comprehensive analysis of fuel consumption trends in electricity generation. Utilizing advanced statistical methods, including time series analysis and autocorrelation, our objective is to uncover intricate patterns and dependencies within the data. This paper aims to forecast fuel consumption trends for electricity generation using data from 2015 to 2022. Several time series forecasting models, including all four benchmark methods (Mean, Naïve, Drift, and seasonal Naïve), Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL), exponential smoothing (ETS), and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, have been applied. The best-performing models are determined based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. For natural gas (NG) consumption, the ETS model achieves the lowest RMSE of 20,687.46. STL demonstrates the best performance for coal consumption with an RMSE of 5936.203. The seasonal Naïve (SNaïve) model outperforms the others for petroleum coke forecasting, yielding an RMSE of 99.49. Surprisingly, the Mean method has the lowest RMSE of 287.34 for petroleum liquids, but the ARIMA model is reliable for its ability to capture complex patterns. Residual plots are analyzed to assess the models’ performance against statistical parameters. Accurate fuel consumption forecasting is very important for effective energy planning and policymaking. The findings from this study will help policymakers strategically allocate resources, plan infrastructure development, and support economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Monjur Hossain Bhuiyan & Ahmed Nazmus Sakib & Syed Ishmam Alawee & Talayeh Razzaghi, 2024. "Fueling the Future: A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Fuel Consumption Trends in U.S. Electricity Generation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-30, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:6:p:2388-:d:1356364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
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    3. Raydonal Ospina & João A. M. Gondim & Víctor Leiva & Cecilia Castro, 2023. "An Overview of Forecast Analysis with ARIMA Models during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodology and Case Study in Brazil," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Forsberg, Charles, 2023. "What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
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