IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i14p7954-d595494.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-Traditional Systemic Risk Contagion within the Chinese Banking Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Tonmoy Choudhury

    (School of Business & Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6000, Australia)

  • Simone Scagnelli

    (School of Business & Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6000, Australia)

  • Jaime Yong

    (School of Business & Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6000, Australia)

  • Zhaoyong Zhang

    (School of Business & Law, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA 6000, Australia)

Abstract

Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic defaults. Given that Chinese markets deliver weak signals of forthcoming stress in banking sectors, new policy intervention is crucial to resolve the hidden stress in the system. The results have important policy implications and will provide scholars and policymakers further insight into the risk contagion originating from interbank networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tonmoy Choudhury & Simone Scagnelli & Jaime Yong & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Non-Traditional Systemic Risk Contagion within the Chinese Banking Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:14:p:7954-:d:595494
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7954/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/14/7954/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    2. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Ilhyock Shim, 2007. "Forbearance and Prompt Corrective Action," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1107-1129, August.
    3. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson & James Y. Yao, 2004. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-8.
    4. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    5. Michael McAleer & Christian M. Hafner, 2014. "A One Line Derivation of EGARCH," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-6, June.
    6. Mayes, David G. & Nieto, María J. & Wall, Larry, 2008. "Multiple safety net regulators and agency problems in the EU: Is Prompt Corrective Action partly the solution?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 232-257, September.
    7. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    8. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Caroline Roulet, 2013. "Business models of banks, leverage and the distance-to-default," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(2), pages 7-34.
    9. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2018. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn spot and futures prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1002-1018.
    10. Qiubin Huang & Jakob De Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Analysing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 348-372, May.
    11. Yang Liu & Sanjukta Brahma & Agyenim Boateng, 2019. "Impact of ownership structure and ownership concentration on credit risk of Chinese commercial banks," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(2), pages 253-272, October.
    12. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2020. "News and return volatility of Chinese bank stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1095-1105.
    13. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi, 2011. "Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, March.
    14. Aggarwal, Raj & Jacques, Kevin T., 2001. "The impact of FDICIA and prompt corrective action on bank capital and risk: Estimates using a simultaneous equations model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1139-1160, June.
    15. Xu, Qifa & Chen, Lu & Jiang, Cuixia & Yuan, Jing, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk of the banking industry in China: A DCC-MIDAS-t approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 13-31.
    16. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fang, Libing & Sun, Boyang & Li, Huijing & Yu, Honghai, 2018. "Systemic risk network of Chinese financial institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    19. Akhter, Selim & Daly, Kevin, 2017. "Contagion risk for Australian banks from global systemically important banks: Evidence from extreme events," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-205.
    20. Kinateder, Harald & Campbell, Ross & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2021. "Safe haven in GFC versus COVID-19: 100 turbulent days in the financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    21. Kun Zhang & Laiwan Chan, 2009. "Efficient factor GARCH models and factor-DCC models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 71-91.
    22. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    23. Nimesh Salike & Biao Ao, 2017. "Determinants of bank’s profitability: role of poor asset quality in Asia," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 216-231, December.
    24. Daly, Kevin & Batten, Jonathan A. & Mishra, Anil V. & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2019. "Contagion risk in global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    25. Zhang, Dayong & Cai, Jing & Dickinson, David G. & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Non-performing loans, moral hazard and regulation of the Chinese commercial banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-60.
    26. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    27. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    28. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    29. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    30. Zhiwei Zhang & Dayong Zhang & Fei Wu & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A copula‐based network approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2044-2063, April.
    31. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2020. "Dependence structures and risk spillover in China’s credit bond market: A copula and CoVaR approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tonmoy Choudhury & Muhammad Kamran & Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta & Tapan Sarker, 2023. "Can Banks Sustain the Growth in Renewable Energy Supply? An International Evidence," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(1), pages 20-50, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daly, Kevin & Batten, Jonathan A. & Mishra, Anil V. & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2019. "Contagion risk in global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Tonmoy Choudhury & Muhammad Kamran & Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta & Tapan Sarker, 2023. "Can Banks Sustain the Growth in Renewable Energy Supply? An International Evidence," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(1), pages 20-50, February.
    3. Zhiwei Zhang & Dayong Zhang & Fei Wu & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A copula‐based network approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2044-2063, April.
    4. Shimizu, Katsutoshi & Ly, Kim Cuong, 2017. "Were regulatory interventions effective in lowering systemic risk during the financial crisis in Japan?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 80-91.
    5. Nivorozhkin, Eugene & Chondrogiannis, Ilias, 2022. "Shifting balances of systemic risk in the Chinese banking sector: Determinants and trends," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Zhang, Xingmin & Fu, Qiang & Lu, Liping & Wang, Qingyu & Zhang, Shuai, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation, network contagion and systemic risk: Evidence from Chinese listed banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Robert F. Engle & Emil N. Siriwardane, 2018. "Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 449-492.
    9. Shuting Liu & Qifa Xu & Cuixia Jiang, 2021. "Systemic risk of China’s commercial banks during financial turmoils in 2010-2020: A MIDAS-QR based CoVaR approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(18), pages 1600-1609, October.
    10. Asish Saha & Nor Hayati Ahmad & Lim Hick Eam & Siew Goh Yeok, 2019. "Assessing Bank Stability in Malaysia in the Framework of Distance to Default," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27.
    11. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Dimitrov, Daniel, 2023. "Macroprudential Regulation: A Risk Management Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 17846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Xu, Qiuhua & Yan, Haoyang & Zhao, Tianyu, 2022. "Contagion effect of systemic risk among industry sectors in China’s stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. M. Zulkifli Salim & Kevin Daly, 2021. "Modelling Systemically Important Banks vis-à-vis the Basel Prudential Guidelines," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Xie, Yiwei & Jiao, Feng & Li, Shihan & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman, 2022. "Systemic risk in financial institutions: A multiplex network approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Zaman, Rashid & Scagnelli, Simone D. & Sohel, Nurul, 2021. "Does boardroom gender diversity decrease credit risk in the financial sector? Worldwide evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Chen, Yi-Pei & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chiang, Shu-Hen & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants of connectedness in financial institutions: Evidence from Taiwan," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    18. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.
    19. Xiaoming Zhang & Chunyan Wei & Stefano Zedda, 2019. "Analysis of China Commercial Banks’ Systemic Risk Sustainability through the Leave-One-Out Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2022. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the Dutch Financial Sector," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-034/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:14:p:7954-:d:595494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.