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Exploring Carbon Neutral Potential in Urban Densification: A Precinct Perspective and Scenario Analysis

Author

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  • Bin Huang

    (School of Energy and Power Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, Adelaide 5095, Australia)

  • Ke Xing

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, Adelaide 5095, Australia)

  • Stephen Pullen

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, Adelaide 5095, Australia)

  • Lida Liao

    (School of Energy and Power Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

Abstract

Decarbonising the urban built environment for reaching carbon neutrality is high on the agenda for many cities undergoing rapid expansion and densification. As an important urban form, precincts have been increasingly focused on as the context for urban redevelopment planning and at the forefront for trialling carbon reduction measures. However, due to interplays between the built forms and the occupancy, the carbon performance of a precinct is significantly affected by morphological variations, demographical changes, and renewable energy system deployment. Despite much research on the development of low-carbon precincts, there is limited analysis on aggregated effects of population growth, building energy efficiency, renewable energy penetration, and carbon reduction targets in relation to precinct carbon signature and carbon neutral potential for precinct redevelopment and decarbonisation planning. In this paper, an integrated carbon assessment model, including overall precinct carbon emissions and carbon offset contributed by precinct-scale renewable energy harvesting, is developed and applied to examine the lifecycle carbon signature of urban precincts. Using a case study on a residential precinct redevelopment, scenario analysis is employed to explore opportunities for decarbonising densification development and the carbon neutral potential. Results from scenario analysis indicate that redevelopment of buildings with higher-rated energy efficiency and increase of renewable energy penetration can have a long term positive impact on the carbon performance of urban precincts. Meanwhile, demographical factors in precinct evolution also have a strong influence on a precinct’s carbon neutral potential. Whilst population size exerts upward pressure on total carbon emissions, changes in family types and associated consumption behaviour, such as travelling, can make positive contributions to carbon reduction. The analysis also highlights the significance of embodied carbon to the total carbon signature and the carbon reduction potential of a precinct during densification, reinforcing the notion that “develop with less” is as important as carbon offsetting measures for decarbonising the precinct toward carbon neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Huang & Ke Xing & Stephen Pullen & Lida Liao, 2020. "Exploring Carbon Neutral Potential in Urban Densification: A Precinct Perspective and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:4814-:d:370601
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    2. Rui Liang & Xichuan Zheng & Jia Liang & Linhui Hu, 2023. "Energy Efficiency Model Construction of Building Carbon Neutrality Design," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Yan Liu & Meiyue Sang & Xiangrui Xu & Liyin Shen & Haijun Bao, 2023. "How Can Urban Regeneration Reduce Carbon Emissions? A Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, June.

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