IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i24p7103-d296794.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Technological Change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Regional Differences: A Case Study of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Changes in Chinese Provinces

Author

Listed:
  • Aijun Guo

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Daiwei Jiang

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Fanglei Zhong

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Xiaojiang Ding

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Xiaoyu Song

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Qingping Cheng

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yongnian Zhang

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Chunlin Huang

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

Technological changes in water use efficiency directly influence regional sustainable development. However, few studies have attempted to predict changes in water use efficiency because of the complex influencing factors and regional diversity. The Chinese Government has established a target of 0.6 for the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water, but it is not clear how the coefficient will change in different provinces in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict irrigation water use efficiency changes using a conditional convergence model and combined with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenario settings and hydro-economic (HE) classification to group 31 Chinese provinces by their different economic and water resources conditions. The results show that the coefficient exponentially converges to 0.6 in half the provinces under SSP1 (sustainability), SSP2 (middle of the road), and SSP5 (conventional development) by 2030, whereas SSP3 (fragmentation) and SSP4 (inequality) are generally inefficient development pathways. HE-3 provinces (strong economic capacity, substantial hydrological challenges) achieve the greatest efficiency improvements (with all coefficients above 0.6), and SSP1 is a suitable pathway for these provinces. HE-2 provinces (strong economic capacities, low hydrological challenges) have relatively low efficiency because they lack incentives to save water, and SSP1 is also suitable for these provinces. For most HE-1 provinces (low economic capacity, low hydrological challenges), the coefficients are less than 0.6, and efforts are required to enhance their economic capacity under SSP1 or SSP5. HE-4 provinces (low economic capacity, substantial hydrological challenges) would improve efficiency in a cost-efficient manner under SSP2.

Suggested Citation

  • Aijun Guo & Daiwei Jiang & Fanglei Zhong & Xiaojiang Ding & Xiaoyu Song & Qingping Cheng & Yongnian Zhang & Chunlin Huang, 2019. "Prediction of Technological Change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Regional Differences: A Case Study of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Changes in Chinese Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7103-:d:296794
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7103/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7103/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Liu, Hao & Li, Huanhuan & Ning, Huifeng & Zhang, Xiaoxian & Li, Shuang & Pang, Jie & Wang, Guangshuai & Sun, Jingsheng, 2019. "Optimizing irrigation frequency and amount to balance yield, fruit quality and water use efficiency of greenhouse tomato," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 120-142, March.
    4. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    5. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-266, April.
    7. Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 385-406, June.
    8. James P. LeSage & Manfred M. Fischer, 2012. "Estimates of the Impact of Static and Dynamic Knowledge Spillovers on Regional Factor Productivity," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 35(1), pages 103-127, January.
    9. Pereira, Helga & Marques, Rui Cunha, 2017. "An analytical review of irrigation efficiency measured using deterministic and stochastic models," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 28-35.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    11. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    12. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13, pages 19-30.
    13. William Nordhaus, 2018. "Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 333-360, August.
    14. Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James & Clarke, Leon & Kyle, Page & Davies, Evan & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Wise, Marshall & Patel, Pralit & Eom, Jiyong & Calvin, Katherine & Moss, Richard & Kim, Son, 2014. "Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 205-226.
    15. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Long, Kaisheng & Pijanowski, Bryan C., 2017. "Is there a relationship between water scarcity and water use efficiency in China? A national decadal assessment across spatial scales," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 502-511.
    17. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    18. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," IWMI Books, Reports H046807, International Water Management Institute.
    19. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    20. Mouratiadou, Ioanna & Biewald, Anne & Pehl, Michaja & Bonsch, Markus & Baumstark, Lavinia & Klein, David & Popp, Alexander & Luderer, Gunnar & Kriegler, Elmar, 2016. "The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-58.
    21. Kifle, Mulubrehan & Gebremicael, T.G. & Girmay, Abbadi & Gebremedihin, Teferi, 2017. "Effect of surge flow and alternate irrigation on the irrigation efficiency and water productivity of onion in the semi-arid areas of North Ethiopia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 69-76.
    22. Du, Ya-Dan & Niu, Wen-Quan & Gu, Xiao-Bo & Zhang, Qian & Cui, Bing-Jing & Zhao, Ying, 2018. "Crop yield and water use efficiency under aerated irrigation: A meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 158-164.
    23. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Mbava, N. & Mutema, M. & Zengeni, R. & Shimelis, H. & Chaplot, V., 2020. "Factors affecting crop water use efficiency: A worldwide meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    26. Misra, S.C. & Shinde, S. & Geerts, S. & Rao, V.S. & Monneveux, P., 2010. "Can carbon isotope discrimination and ash content predict grain yield and water use efficiency in wheat?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 57-65, January.
    27. Zhang, Ling & Ma, Qimin & Zhao, Yanbo & Wu, Xiaobo & Yu, Wenjun, 2019. "Determining the influence of irrigation efficiency improvement on water use and consumption by conceptually considering hydrological pathways," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 674-681.
    28. Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Sun, Hongyong & Chen, Suying & Zhang, Xiying, 2013. "Responses of yield and water use efficiency to irrigation amount decided by pan evaporation for winter wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 173-180.
    29. Nazemi Rafi, Zahra & Kazemi, Fatemeh & Tehranifar, Ali, 2019. "Effects of various irrigation regimes on water use efficiency and visual quality of some ornamental herbaceous plants in the field," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 78-87.
    30. Aijun Guo & Xiaojiang Ding & Fanglei Zhong & Qingping Cheng & Chunlin Huang, 2019. "Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-17, July.
    31. Пигнастый, Олег & Koжевников, Георгий, 2019. "Распределенная Динамическая Pde-Модель Программного Управления Загрузкой Технологического Оборудования Производственной Линии [Distributed dynamic PDE-model of a program control by utilization of t," MPRA Paper 93278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Feb 2019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aijun Guo & Rong Zhang & Xiaoyu Song & Fanglei Zhong & Daiwei Jiang & Yuan Song, 2021. "Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Manfei Zhang & Xiao Wang & Weibo Zhou, 2021. "Effects of Water-Saving Irrigation on Hydrological Cycle in an Irrigation District of Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Desmet & Felipe Meza & Juan A. Rojas, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and spillovers: gradualism may be better," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 926-953, August.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
    3. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Jane K. Dokko & Benjamin J. Keys & Lindsay E. Relihan, 2019. "Affordability, financial innovation and the start of the housing boom," CEP Discussion Papers dp1611, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Jan Van Hove, 2008. "The Impact of R&D Spillovers on Export Value: Does the Transmission Channel matter?," Working Papers 2008.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    8. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    9. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    10. KOCH, Wilfried, 2006. "Total Factor Productivity equation and development accounting: New evidence," LEG - Document de travail - Economie 2006-04, LEG, Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne.
    11. Maurseth, Per Botolf, 2001. "Convergence, geography and technology," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-276, September.
    12. Wan, Jun & Baylis, Kathy & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Trade-facilitated technology spillovers in energy productivity convergence processes across EU countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 253-264.
    13. Sang-Yong Tom Lee & Xiao Jia Guo, 2004. "Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Spillover: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 722, Econometric Society.
    14. Mark Rogers, 2003. "A Survey of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 112-135, March.
    15. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2018. "Technology diffusion, international integration and participation in developing economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 215-253, January.
    16. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Knowledge = Technology + Human Capital and the Lucas and Romer Production Functions," MPRA Paper 58847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Miketa, Asami & Mulder, Peter, 2005. "Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors: Patterns of growth and convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 429-453, May.
    18. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    19. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    20. Lindner, Ines & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "The great divergence: A network approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 193, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7103-:d:296794. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.