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Long-Term Growth Scenarios

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Author Info

  • Åsa Johansson
  • Yvan Guillemette
  • Fabrice Murtin
  • David Turner
  • Giuseppe Nicoletti
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Philip Bagnoli
  • Guillaume Bousquet
  • Francesca Spinelli

Abstract

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. Scénarios de croissance à long terme Cette étude présente les résultats d?un nouveau modèle de projection de la croissance économique des pays de l?OCDE et des pays majeurs hors-OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans ainsi que des déséquilibres qui apparaissent. Un scénario de référence, qui comprend des réformes structurelles graduelles et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios de dette/PIB, est comparé à des scénarios alternatifs qui incluent des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l?OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais la différence s?amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l?économie mondiale. En absence de refonte ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres mondiaux dangereux pour la croissance émergeront. Cependant, une rationalisation plus prononcée des finances publiques combinée à des réformes structurelles profondes pourrait à la fois faire augmenter les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres mondiaux.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 1000.

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Date of creation: 28 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1000-en

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Keywords: growth; human capital; productivity; current accounts; saving; fiscal and structural policy; long run; global imbalances; conditional convergence; déséquilibres mondiaux; convergence conditionnelle; politiques fiscales et structurelles; productivité; projections à long terme; épargne; compte courant; croissance; capital humain;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Jarrett, 2012. "The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 24, pages 85-96, Fall.
  2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-00975545, HAL.
  3. repec:hal:journl:hal-00975545 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Boris Cournède & Antoine Goujard & Álvaro Pina, 2013. "How to Achieve Growth- and Equity-friendly Fiscal Consolidation?: A Proposed Methodology for Instrument Choice with an Illustrative Application to OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1088, OECD Publishing.
  5. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
  6. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2012. "Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 3, OECD Publishing.

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