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Comparing the Effects of Vehicle Automation, Policy-Making and Changed User Preferences on the Uptake of Electric Cars and Emissions from Transport

Author

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  • Christoph Mazur

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Earth Science and Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Gregory J. Offer

    (Mechanical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Marcello Contestabile

    (Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Nigel Brandon Brandon

    (Earth Science and Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

Abstract

Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they do not address whether the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy-making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial but still insufficient. In contrast, the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Mazur & Gregory J. Offer & Marcello Contestabile & Nigel Brandon Brandon, 2018. "Comparing the Effects of Vehicle Automation, Policy-Making and Changed User Preferences on the Uptake of Electric Cars and Emissions from Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:676-:d:134340
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    2. Eric Williams & Vivekananda Das & Andrew Fisher, 2020. "Assessing the Sustainability Implications of Autonomous Vehicles: Recommendations for Research Community Practice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Carmichael, R. & Gross, R. & Hanna, R. & Rhodes, A. & Green, T., 2021. "The Demand Response Technology Cluster: Accelerating UK residential consumer engagement with time-of-use tariffs, electric vehicles and smart meters via digital comparison tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Jie Ma & Lin Cheng & Dawei Li & Qiang Tu, 2018. "Stochastic Electric Vehicle Network Considering Environmental Costs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Shuang Kan & Wei Lyu & Shiyu Zhao, 2022. "Evaluation of the Environmental Effect of Automated Vehicles Based on IVIULWG Operator Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Mihai Machedon-Pisu & Paul Nicolae Borza, 2021. "A Methodological Approach to Assess the Impact of Energy and Raw Materials Constraints on the Sustainable Deployment of Light-Duty Vehicles by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    7. Mihai Machedon-Pisu & Paul Nicolae Borza, 2022. "Impact of the Light-Duty Vehicles’ Storage and Travel Demand on the Sustainable Exploitation of Available Resources and Air Pollution Abatement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.

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