Evaluating CO2 reduction policy portfolios in the automotive sector
AbstractThis paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the market for passenger cars in which firm strategies, market structure, consumer choices and policy instruments co-evolve. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this type of simulation model can be used to explore interactions and additional effects when different policy measures are combined to reduce CO2 emissions. We show the impact of policy portfolios on economic and technological decisions of firms, on consumer choice and on global CO2 emissions. In particular, we show how the dynamics of the system can lead to a technological lock-in into internal combustion technologies and demonstrate the ways in which policy instruments can help to break this lock-in. We show that policy portfolios can be relevant to achieve the best of different stand-alone policy measures, but not necessarily. Ex ante evaluation is therefore recommended.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies in its series Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series with number 13-01.
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision: Feb 2013
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Web page: http://www.uu.nl/faculty/geosciences/EN/research/institutesandgroups/researchinstitutes/copernicusinstitute/research/Innovation/Pages/default.aspx
agent-based simulation; CO2 emissions; low emission vehicle technologies; policy portfolio; technological change; transition;
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-03-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-03-16 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-TRE-2013-03-16 (Transport Economics)
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