IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v11y2023i4p75-d1121004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Underwriting Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance: The Impact of Catastrophic Events

Author

Listed:
  • Annette Hofmann

    (Carl H. Lindner College of Business, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, USA)

  • Cristina Sattarhoff

    (Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, 24118 Kiel, Germany
    Faculty of Business Administration, HBS Hamburg Business School, University of Hamburg, Moorweidenstraße 18, 20148 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

This paper challenges the question of existence and predictability of underwriting cycles in the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry. Using an approach in the frequency domain, we demonstrate the existence of a hidden periodic component in annual aggregated loss ratios. The data support an underwriting cycle length of 8–9 years. Going beyond previous research and studying almost 30 years of quarterly underwriting data, we can improve forecasting performance by (dis)connecting cycles and catastrophic events. Superior out-of-sample forecast results from models with intervention variables flagging the time point of catastrophic outbreaks is achieved in terms of mean squared/absolute forecast errors. We evaluate model confidence sets containing the most accurate model with a certain confidence level. The analysis suggests that reliable forecasts can be achieved net of the irregular major peaks in loss distributions that arise from natural catastrophes as well as unusual “black swan” events.

Suggested Citation

  • Annette Hofmann & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2023. "Underwriting Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance: The Impact of Catastrophic Events," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:75-:d:1121004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/11/4/75/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/11/4/75/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Cummins, J. & Sommer, David W., 1996. "Capital and risk in property-liability insurance markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1069-1092, July.
    2. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
    3. Doherty, Neil A & Posey, Lisa Lipowski, 1997. "Availability Crises in Insurance Markets: Optimal Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Capacity Constraints," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 55-80, October.
    4. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
    5. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    6. Mark J. Browne & Lan Ju & Zhiyong Tu, 2014. "Broker monitoring of premium adequacy: the role of contingent commissions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2375-2386, July.
    7. Adam, Klaus & Merkel, Sebastian, 2019. "Stock Price Cycles and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Boonen, Tim J. & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Wu, Renchao, 2018. "Non-cooperative dynamic games for general insurance markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 123-135.
    9. Dorina Lazar & Michel M. Denuit, 2012. "Multivariate Analysis of Premium Dynamics in P&L Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 431-448, June.
    10. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    11. M Martin Boyer & Iqbal Owadally, 2015. "Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 40(2), pages 232-255, April.
    12. Malinovskii, Vsevolod K., 2010. "Competition-Originated Cycles and Insurance Strategies," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 797-843, November.
    13. Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-538, October.
    14. Doherty, Neil A & Garven, James R, 1995. "Insurance Cycles: Interest Rates and the Capacity Constraint Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 383-404, July.
    15. Winter Ralph A., 1994. "The Dynamics of Competitive Insurance Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-415, September.
    16. Lazar, Dorina & Denuit, Michel, 2012. "Multivariate Analysis of Premium Dynamics in P&L Insurance," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    17. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    18. Doherty, Neil A. & Kang, Han Bin, 1988. "Interest rates and insurance price cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 199-214, June.
    19. Ursina B. Meier & J. François Outreville, 2006. "Business cycles in insurance and reinsurance: the case of France, Germany and Switzerland," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 160-176, March.
    20. Ursina B. Meier & J. François Outreville, 2006. "Business cycles in insurance and reinsurance: the case of France, Germany and Switzerland," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 160-176, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    2. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Seungmook Choi & Don Hardigree & Paul D. Thistle, 2002. "The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 530-548, January.
    4. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2008. "Les cycles de souscription de l’assurance non vie en France," Working Papers hal-04140756, HAL.
    5. Shi‐jie Jiang & Jeffrey Tzu‐Hao Tsai & Feiyun Xiang, 2023. "Dynamics of underwriting profits in the US market: Payout patterns and regulation effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3100-3118, July.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French Property," Working Papers 2014-47, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. J. Cummins & Neil Doherty, 2002. "Capitalization of the Property-Liability Insurance Industry: Overview," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 5-14, February.
    9. Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
    10. Faith R. Neale & Kevin L. Eastman & Pamela Peterson Drake, 2009. "Dynamics of the Market for Medical Malpractice Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 221-247, March.
    11. Iqbal Owadally & Feng Zhou & Douglas Wright, 2018. "The Insurance Industry as a Complex Social System: Competition, Cycles and Crises," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(4), pages 1-2.
    12. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "How Do the Interest Rate and the Inflation Rate Affect the Non-Life Insurance Premiums ?," Working Papers 2014-282, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. David L. Dicks & James R. Garven, 2022. "Asymmetric information and insurance cycles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 449-474, June.
    14. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen & Fengping Tian, 2015. "Realized Volatility Forecast of Stock Index Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 57-82, January.
    15. Piotr Manikowski & П. Маниковский, 2016. "АНДЕРРАЙТИНГОВЫЕ ЦИКЛЫ И КРИЗИСЫ // Underwriting Cycles and Crises," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 4, pages 76-81.
    16. Boonen, Tim J. & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Wu, Renchao, 2018. "Non-cooperative dynamic games for general insurance markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 123-135.
    17. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    18. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Hard markets, hard times: On the inefficiency of the CAT bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Griffiths, William E. & Newton, Lisa S. & O'Donnell, Christopher J., 2010. "Predictive densities for models with stochastic regressors and inequality constraints: Forecasting local-area wheat yield," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 397-412, April.
    20. Berrin Aytac & S. Wu, 2013. "Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 255-277, March.
    21. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:75-:d:1121004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.