IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i2p410-d1034021.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does ESG Predict Systemic Banking Crises? A Computational Economics Model of Early Warning Systems with Interpretable Multi-Variable LSTM based on Mixture Attention

Author

Listed:
  • Shu-Ling Lin

    (Department of Information and Finance Management, College of Management, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei 10608, Taiwan)

  • Xiao Jin

    (Department of Information and Finance Management, College of Management, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei 10608, Taiwan)

Abstract

Systemic banking crises can be very damaging to economic development, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) can also damage national finances, but there is no research on whether ESG affects systemic banking crises, and we fill this gap. We first employ Fisher scores (FS) to select features and then use an interpretable multivariate long-short-term memory (IMV-LSTM) model with focal loss (FL) to account for class imbalance to model an early warning system (EWS) that can predict up to one year in advance. This study finds that ESG influences the occurrence of systemic banking crises, with our early warning system predicting each crisis a year in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Shu-Ling Lin & Xiao Jin, 2023. "Does ESG Predict Systemic Banking Crises? A Computational Economics Model of Early Warning Systems with Interpretable Multi-Variable LSTM based on Mixture Attention," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:2:p:410-:d:1034021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/2/410/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/2/410/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quanrui Song & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Risk Measurement of Stock Markets in BRICS, G7, and G20: Vine Copulas versus Factor Copulas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Anamaria Dan & Adriana Tiron-Tudor, 2021. "The Determinants of Green Bond Issuance in the European Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    4. Tongyu Wang & Shangmei Zhao & Guangxiang Zhu & Haitao Zheng, 2021. "A machine learning-based early warning system for systemic banking crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 2974-2992, June.
    5. Crifo, Patricia & Diaye, Marc-Arthur & Oueghlissi, Rim, 2017. "The effect of countries’ ESG ratings on their sovereign borrowing costs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-20.
    6. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
    7. Dario Sansone & Anna Zhu, 2023. "Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 959-992, October.
    8. Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    10. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.
    11. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Qin, Xiao & Luo, Chengying, 2014. "Capital account openness and early warning system for banking crises in G20 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 190-194.
    13. Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone, 2014. "Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 258-269.
    14. Broadstock, David C. & Chan, Kalok & Cheng, Louis T.W. & Wang, Xiaowei, 2021. "The role of ESG performance during times of financial crisis: Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    15. Gillan, Stuart L. & Koch, Andrew & Starks, Laura T., 2021. "Firms and social responsibility: A review of ESG and CSR research in corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Cohen Gil, 2022. "What can we learn from the financial market about sustainability?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-7, March.
    17. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2020. "Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Ioan Batrancea & Larissa Batrancea & Malar Maran Rathnaswamy & Horia Tulai & Gheorghe Fatacean & Mircea-Iosif Rus, 2020. "Greening the Financial System in USA, Canada and Brazil: A Panel Data Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Neunhoeffer, Marcel & Sternberg, Sebastian, 2019. "How Cross-Validation Can Go Wrong and What to Do About It," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 101-106, January.
    21. Jingyan Zhang & Jan De Spiegeleer & Wim Schoutens, 2021. "Implied Tail Risk and ESG Ratings," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-16, July.
    22. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    23. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    3. Mekki Hamdaoui & SaifEddine Ayouni & Samir Maktouf, 2022. "Financial crises: explanation, prediction, and interdependence," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-52, August.
    4. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.
    5. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Fendel Ralf & Stremmel Hanno, 2016. "Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Geographical Contagion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 349-388, May.
    7. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Castro, Vítor & Wood, Justine, 2022. "A new comprehensive database of financial crises: Identification, frequency, and duration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2018. "Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 344-354.
    10. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    11. Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Xianglong Liu, 2023. "Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 288-312, June.
    13. Tran Huynh & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: can political indicators improve prediction?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    15. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Le, Huong Nguyen Quynh & Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Schinckus, Christophe, 2022. "The role of strategic interactions in risk-taking behavior: A study from asset growth perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Audit, Dooneshsingh & Alam, Nafis, 2022. "Why have credit variables taken centre stage in predicting systemic banking crises?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    18. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2019. "The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 290-313, May.
    19. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:2:p:410-:d:1034021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.