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Scenario Paths of Developing Forest Carbon Sinks for China to Achieve Carbon Neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Guangyue Xu

    (Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China)

  • Peter Schwarz

    (Belk College of Business and Associate, Energy Production and Infrastructure Center (EPIC), University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223, USA)

  • Xiaojing Shi

    (School of College English Teaching and Research, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China)

  • Nathan Duma

    (The Sphere Institute, Los Angeles, CA 90017, USA)

Abstract

To explore the role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality, the cointegration regression method and scenario analysis are utilized to forecast the long-term development trend of China’s forest carbon sinks up to the year 2100 and their impact on carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) Under routine, accelerated, and strengthened ecological civilization scenarios (or RECS, AECS, and SECS, respectively), China’s forests are projected to absorb 531–645 million tons of carbon by 2050 and 2.32–4.69 billion tons of carbon by 2100, respectively, and the value of the strengthened scenario will be markedly higher than that of the routine scenario. (2) Driven by slower growth in forestry investment, China’s forest carbon sinks growth in all three scenarios peak by 2050 and then slow in a U-trend, with the growth rate in the SECS 0.45 percentage points higher than that of AECS, and the growth rate in the AECS 0.44 percentage points higher than that of RECS. (3) Under SECS, forest carbon sinks can help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal in 2054 (before the target date of 2060) with cumulative forestry investment of 53.3 trillion yuan and an annual investment growth rate of about 6.3%. Therefore, this study provides a deeper understanding than previous works of the important role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangyue Xu & Peter Schwarz & Xiaojing Shi & Nathan Duma, 2023. "Scenario Paths of Developing Forest Carbon Sinks for China to Achieve Carbon Neutrality," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:7:p:1325-:d:1184270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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