IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i3p116-d762194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study of the Machine Learning Approach and the MGARCH-BEKK Model in Volatility Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Prashant Joshi

    (School of Business, Saint Martin’s University, 5000 Abbey Way SE, Lacey, WA 98503, USA)

  • Jinghua Wang

    (Martin Tuchman School of Management, New Jersey Institute of Technology, University Heights, Newark, NJ 07102, USA)

  • Michael Busler

    (School of Business, Stockton University, 101 Vera King Farris Drive, Galloway, NJ 08205, USA)

Abstract

This study analyzes the volatility spillover effects in the US stock market (S&P500) and cryptocurrency market (BGCI) using intraday data during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the potential drivers of portfolio diversification, we measure the asymmetric volatility transmission on both markets. We apply MGARCH-BEKK and the algorithm-based G A 2 M machine learning model. The negative shocks to returns impact the S&P500 and the cryptocurrency market more than the positive shocks on both markets. This study also indicates evidence of unidirectional cross-market asymmetric volatility transmission from the cryptocurrency market to the S&P500 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research findings show the potential benefit of portfolio diversification between the S&P500 and BGCI.

Suggested Citation

  • Prashant Joshi & Jinghua Wang & Michael Busler, 2022. "A Study of the Machine Learning Approach and the MGARCH-BEKK Model in Volatility Transmission," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:3:p:116-:d:762194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/3/116/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/3/116/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 779-811, September.
    3. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 779-811, September.
    4. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    5. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    6. Symitsi, Efthymia & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2018. "Return, volatility and shock spillovers of Bitcoin with energy and technology companies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 127-130.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    8. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    9. Thierry Warin & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2021. "Machine Learning in Finance: A Metadata-Based Systematic Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, July.
    10. Wang, Jinghua & Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2020. "Does Bitcoin still own the dominant power? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    12. Hong Li, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 285-297.
    13. Li, Hong & Majerowska, Ewa, 2008. "Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-266, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prashant Joshi, 2011. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Among Asian Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 1(1), pages 21582440114, June.
    2. Zohaib Aziz & Javed Iqbal, 2017. "Testing the Dynamic Linkages of the Pakistani Stock Market with Regional and Global Markets," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 89-116, July-Dec.
    3. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    4. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Maphelane Palesa Phume, 2022. "Return and volatility spillovers between South African and Nigerian equity markets," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 205-218, January.
    5. Muhammad Niaz Khan & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong & David M. Power, 2022. "Changes in co-movement and risk transmission between South Asian stock markets amidst the development of regional co-operation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(1), pages 87-117, March.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:2452 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. S Zhang & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Linkages between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indices," Working Papers 599248, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Hassan Mohammadi & Yuting Tan, 2015. "Return and Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the United States," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, April.
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:2594 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Withanage, Yeshan & Jayasinghe, Prabhath, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers between South Asian Stock Markets: Evidence from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82782, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:2371 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stan Shun-Pinn Lee & Kim-Leng Goh, 2016. "Regional and International Linkages of the ASEAN-5 Stock Markets: A Multivariate Garch Approach," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 12(1), pages 49-71.
    13. van Dieijen, M.J. & Borah, A. & Tellis, G.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2016. "Volatility Spillovers Across User-Generated Content and Stock Market Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2016-008-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali, 2020. "Discovering interlinkages between major cryptocurrencies using high-frequency data: new evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Time-varying correlations in oil, gas and CO 2 prices: an application using BEKK, CCC and DCC-MGARCH models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4257-4274, November.
    17. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    18. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    19. Erten, Irem & Tuncel, Murat B. & Okay, Nesrin, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in Emerging Markets During the Global Financial Crisis: Diagonal BEKK Approach," MPRA Paper 56190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    21. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2017. "Volatility Clustering, Leverage Effects and Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Selected Stock Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-53, September.
    22. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2020. "Does the Choice of the Multivariate GARCH Model on Volatility Spillovers Matter? Evidence from Oil Prices and Stock Markets in G7 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 164-182.
    23. Helena Chulia & Francisco Climent & Pilar Soriano & Hipolit Torro, 2009. "Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 607-619.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:3:p:116-:d:762194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.