IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v8y2020i4p68-d441882.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-Performing Loans for Italian Companies: When Time Matters. An Empirical Research on Estimating Probability to Default and Loss Given Default

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Orlando

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Via C. Rosalba 53, 70124 Bari, Italy
    Department of Applied Mathematics, Universidad de Jaén, Campus Las Lagunillas, Avda. Antonio Pascual Acosta, 23071 Jaén, Spain)

  • Roberta Pelosi

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Via C. Rosalba 53, 70124 Bari, Italy)

Abstract

Within bank activities, which is normally defined as the joint exercise of savings collection and credit supply, risk-taking is natural, as in many human activities. Among risks related to credit intermediation, credit risk assumes particular importance. It is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty fails to fulfil correctly at maturity the pecuniary obligations assumed as principal and interest. Whenever this happens, a loan is non-performing. Among the main risk components, the Probability of Default (PD) and the Loss Given Default (LGD) have been the subject of greater interest for research. In this paper, logit model is used to predict both components. Financial ratios are used to estimate the PD. Time of recovery and presence of collateral are used as covariates of the LGD. Here, we confirm that the main driver of economic losses is the bureaucratically encumbered recovery system and the related legal environment. The long time required by Italian bureaucratic procedures, simply put, seems to lower dramatically the chance of recovery from defaulting counterparties.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Orlando & Roberta Pelosi, 2020. "Non-Performing Loans for Italian Companies: When Time Matters. An Empirical Research on Estimating Probability to Default and Loss Given Default," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:68-:d:441882
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/4/68/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/4/68/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnold, Jens & Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2011. "Does Anti-Competitive Regulation Matter for Productivity? Evidence from European Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 5511, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Achleitner, Ann-Kristin & Braun, Reiner & Engel, Nico, 2011. "Value creation and pricing in buyouts: Empirical evidence from Europe and North America," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 146-161.
    3. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
    4. Luc Laeven & Christopher Woodruff, 2007. "The Quality of the Legal System, Firm Ownership, and Firm Size," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 601-614, November.
    5. Bruno Chiarini, 1999. "The Composition of Union Membership: The Role of Pensioners in Italy," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 577-600, December.
    6. Dan Andrews & Federico Cingano, 2014. "Public policy and resource allocation: evidence from firms in Oecd countries [‘Joseph Schumpeter Lecture. Appropriate growth policy: a unifying framework]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 253-296.
    7. Mirko Moscatelli & Simone Narizzano & Fabio Parlapiano & Gianluca Viggiano, 2019. "Corporate default forecasting with machine learning," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1256, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Mark Sanders & Axel Marx & Mikael Stenkula (ed.), 2020. "The Entrepreneurial Society," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Springer, number 978-3-662-61007-7, March.
    9. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2009. "Measuring and Analyzing Cross-country Differences in Firm Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 15-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Salvador Barrios & Jean-Claude Burgelman, 2008. "Europe Needs More Lisbon to Make the ICT Investments Effective," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(3), pages 124-134, May.
    11. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Bianco, Magda, 2005. "Courts and Banks: Effects of Judicial Enforcement on Credit Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 223-244, April.
    12. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal, 2015. "Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Productivity Working Papers 2, OECD Publishing.
    13. Hartmann-Wendels, Thomas & Miller, Patrick & Töws, Eugen, 2014. "Loss given default for leasing: Parametric and nonparametric estimations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 364-375.
    14. Hui Ye & Anthony Bellotti, 2019. "Modelling Recovery Rates for Non-Performing Loans," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, February.
    15. Albert Bravo-Biosca & Chiara Criscuolo & Carlo Menon, 2016. "What drives the dynamics of business growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 703-742.
    16. Tian, Shaonan & Yu, Yan, 2017. "Financial ratios and bankruptcy predictions: An international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-526.
    17. Guglielmo Barone & Federico Cingano, 2011. "Service Regulation and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 931-957, September.
    18. Bentivogli, Chiara, 2009. "Taxi regulation and the Bersani reform: a survey of major Italian cities," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 41, pages 1-27.
    19. Daniela Fabbri, 2010. "Law Enforcement and Firm Financing: Theory and Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 776-816, June.
    20. Daniela Fabbri, 2010. "Law Enforcement and Firm Financing: Theory and Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 776-816, June.
    21. Cramer,J. S., 2011. "Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521188036.
    22. Bi-Huei Tsai, 2013. "An Early Warning System of Financial Distress Using Multinomial Logit Models and a Bootstrapping Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S2), pages 43-69, March.
    23. Mindy Leow & Christophe Mues & Lyn Thomas, 2014. "The economy and loss given default: evidence from two UK retail lending data sets," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 363-375, March.
    24. Yashkir, Olga & Yashkir, Yuriy, 2013. "Loss Given Default Modelling: Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 46147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Han, Chulwoo & Jang, Youngmin, 2013. "Effects of debt collection practices on loss given default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 21-31.
    26. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesca Lotti & Monica Amici & Emanuela Ciapanna & Fabrizio Colonna & Francesco D�Amuri & Silvia Giacomelli & Andrea Linarello & Francesco Manaresi & Giuliana Palumbo & Filippo , 2018. "Productivity growth in Italy: a tale of a slow-motion change," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seyed Alireza Athari & Chafic Saliba & Danielle Khalife & Madonna Salameh-Ayanian, 2023. "The Role of Country Governance in Achieving the Banking Sector’s Sustainability in Vulnerable Environments: New Insight from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Khalil Alnabulsi & Emira Kozarević & Abdelaziz Hakimi, 2023. "Non-Performing Loans and Net Interest Margin in the MENA Region: Linear and Non-Linear Analyses," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Nikita Moiseev & Aleksander Sorokin & Natalya Zvezdina & Alexey Mikhaylov & Lyubov Khomyakova & Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2021. "Credit Risk Theoretical Model on the Base of DCC-GARCH in Time-Varying Parameters Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-12, September.
    4. Chafic Saliba & Panteha Farmanesh & Seyed Alireza Athari, 2023. "Does country risk impact the banking sectors’ non-performing loans? Evidence from BRICS emerging economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    5. Ekaterina V. Orlova, 2021. "Methodology and Models for Individuals’ Creditworthiness Management Using Digital Footprint Data and Machine Learning Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-28, August.
    6. Aydin Aslan & Lars Poppe & Peter Posch, 2021. "Are Sustainable Companies More Likely to Default? Evidence from the Dynamics between Credit and ESG Ratings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Giuseppe Orlando & Edward Bace, 2021. "Challenging Times for Insurance, Banking and Financial Supervision in Saudi Arabia (KSA)," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-28, June.
    8. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska & Paweł Kopciuszewski & Anna Matuszyk, 2023. "Application of the kNN-Based Method and Survival Approach in Estimating Loss Given Default for Unresolved Cases," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-14, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesca Lotti & Monica Amici & Emanuela Ciapanna & Fabrizio Colonna & Francesco D�Amuri & Silvia Giacomelli & Andrea Linarello & Francesco Manaresi & Giuliana Palumbo & Filippo , 2018. "Productivity growth in Italy: a tale of a slow-motion change," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Falavigna, Greta & Ippoliti, Roberto, 2023. "SMEs’ behavior under financial constraints: An empirical investigation on the legal environment and the substitution effect with tax arrears," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    4. Nicoletti, Giuseppe & von Rueden, Christina & Andrews, Dan, 2020. "Digital technology diffusion: A matter of capabilities, incentives or both?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Kellner, Ralf & Nagl, Maximilian & Rösch, Daniel, 2022. "Opening the black box – Quantile neural networks for loss given default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fatemi Pour, Farnoosh & Heidenreich, Konstantin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2017. "Fuzzy decision fusion approach for loss-given-default modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 780-791.
    7. Giulia Canzian & Antonella Rita Ferrara, 2021. "Judicial Efficiency and Banks Credit Risk Exposure," CESifo Working Paper Series 8930, CESifo.
    8. Vincenzo Pezone, 2023. "The Real Effects of Judicial Enforcement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 889-933.
    9. Ferrando, Annalisa & Moro, Andrea & Maresch, Daniela, 2015. "Creditor protection, judicial enforcement and credit access," Working Paper Series 1829, European Central Bank.
    10. Silvia Giacomelli & Carlo Menon, 2017. "Does weak contract enforcement affect firm size? Evidence from the neighbour’s court," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1251-1282.
    11. Giorgio Albareto & Michele Cascarano & Stefania De Mitri & Cristina Demma & Roberto Felici & Carlotta Rossi, 2022. "The banking system and the financing of southern Italian firms," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 684, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Marc Gürtler & Marvin Zöllner, 2023. "Heterogeneities among credit risk parameter distributions: the modality defines the best estimation method," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 251-287, March.
    13. Comi, Simona & Grasseni, Mara & Resmini, Laura, 2021. "Can judicial efficiency improve territorial attractiveness to FDI? The Italian experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Giacomelli, Silvia & Menon, Carlo, 2012. "Firm size and judicial efficiency in Italy: evidence from the neighbour's tribunal," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58339, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Rezazadeh, Hani & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Höchstötter, Markus, 2022. "Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 240-252.
    16. Kaposty, Florian & Kriebel, Johannes & Löderbusch, Matthias, 2020. "Predicting loss given default in leasing: A closer look at models and variable selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 248-266.
    17. Miguel García-Posada & Juan Mora-Sanguinetti, 2015. "Does (average) size matter? Court enforcement, business demography and firm growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 639-669, March.
    18. Emanuela Ciapanna & Sauro Mocetti & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2020. "The effects of structural reforms: Evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1303, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Miller, Patrick & Töws, Eugen, 2018. "Loss given default adjusted workout processes for leases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 189-201.
    20. Rizos, Anastasios & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2021. "Judicial Efficiency and Economic Growth: Evidence based on EU data," MPRA Paper 107861, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:68-:d:441882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.