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Development and Verification of a Regional Residential Electricity Consumption Estimation Method

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  • Yanghui Guo

    (Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 1620041, Japan)

  • Andante Hadi Pandyaswargo

    (Environmental Research Institute, Waseda University, Tokyo 1620041, Japan)

  • Koki Matsumoto

    (Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 1620041, Japan)

  • Hiroshi Onoda

    (Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 1620041, Japan)

Abstract

In pursuing Japan’s target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, decarbonization strategies at the regional level have been taking place nationally. Some successes have been achieved in the residential sector in achieving decarbonization at the regional level due to improvements in the advancement of energy-saving technologies. An important prerequisite to achieving further decarbonization in the residential sector is understanding household electricity consumption of power demand objects. This study constructed a method for predicting residential electricity consumption in a case study region. First, we set up six models of household composition for scenario exercises. Then, we used the residential energy estimation based on daily activities (REEDA) method to calculate the hourly electricity consumption of each household composition in the four seasons based on the duration of daily life activity. Finally, we separately explore the impact of housing performance (insulation, airtightness), air-conditioning patterns (intermittent operation method in a habitable room/continuous operation method in a habitable room/continuous operation method in all rooms), and geographical location on residential air conditional electricity consumption. The output is a regional residential energy estimate method that can consider multiple key variables. We verified the developed model by (1) comparing the estimated output with the Japan Energy Database and (2) testing the method for various residential areas in Japan. The results showed an accuracy level greater than 75% and nationwide applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanghui Guo & Andante Hadi Pandyaswargo & Koki Matsumoto & Hiroshi Onoda, 2023. "Development and Verification of a Regional Residential Electricity Consumption Estimation Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:23:p:7738-:d:1286468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 2001. "A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 45-55.
    2. Mark Jaccard & Alison Bailie & John Nyboer, 1996. "CO2 Emission Reduction Costs in the Residential Sector: Behavioral Parameters in a Bottom-Up Simulation Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 107-134.
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