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An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Namibia

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Author Info

  • Glauco De Vita

    (Oxford Brookes University Business School)

  • Klaus Endresen

    (Independent Energy Consultant, Namibia)

  • Lester C. Hunt

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

Using a unique database of end-user local energy data and the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, we estimate the long-run elasticities of the Namibian energy demand function at both aggregated level and by type of energy (electricity, petrol and diesel) for the period 1980 to 2002. Our main results show that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price and air temperature. The differences in price elasticities across fuels uncovered by this study have significant implications for energy taxation by Namibian policy makers. We do not find any significant cross-price elasticities between different fuel types.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 110.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy Policy, 34(18), 2006, pp. 3447-3463. (Revised Version)
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:110

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Keywords: Energy demand; ARDL; Cointegration;

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  1. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Milton Friedman, 1962. "Introduction to "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series"," NBER Chapters, in: The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series, pages 1-3 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Brenton, P., 1995. "Estimates of the Demand for Energy Using Cross-Country Consumption Data," Discussion Papers 95-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. James M. Griffin & Craig T. Schulman, 2005. "Price Asymmetry in Energy Demand Models: A Proxy for Energy-Saving Technical Change?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-22.
  5. Jesper Stage & Florette Fleermuys, 2001. "Energy use in the Namibian economy from 1995 to 1998," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 423-441.
  6. Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
  7. Milton Friedman, 1962. "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie62-1.
  8. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  9. Ibrahim, Ibrahim B. & Hurst, Christopher, 1990. "Estimating energy and oil demand functions : A study of thirteen developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 93-102, April.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  11. Jesper Stage, 2002. "Structural Shifts In Namibian Energy Use: An Input-Output Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 1103-1125, 09.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  14. Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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