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How Long Will Combustion Vehicles Be Used? Polish Transport Sector on the Pathway to Climate Neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Wojciech Rabiega

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Artur Gorzałczyński

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Robert Jeszke

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Paweł Mzyk

    (National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krystian Szczepański

    (Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute (IEP-NRI), Krucza 5/11D, 00-548 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Transformation of road transport sector through replacing of internal combustion vehicles with zero-emission technologies is among key challenges to achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. In a constantly developing economy, the demand for transport services increases to ensure continuity in the supply chain and passenger mobility. Deployment of electric technologies in the road transport sector involves both businesses and households, its pace depends on the technological development of zero-emission vehicles, presence of necessary infrastructure and regulations on emission standards for new vehicles entering the market. Thus, this study attempts to estimate how long combustion vehicles will be in use and what the state of the fleet will be in 2050. For obtainment of results the TR 3 E partial equilibrium model was used. The study simulates the future fleet structure in passenger and freight transport. The results obtained for Poland for the climate neutrality (NEU) scenario show that in 2050 the share of vehicles using fossil fuels will be ca. 30% in both road passenger and freight transport. The consequence of shifts in the structure of the fleet is the reduction of CO 2 emissions ca. 80% by 2050 and increase of the transport demand for electricity and hydrogen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Rabiega & Artur Gorzałczyński & Robert Jeszke & Paweł Mzyk & Krystian Szczepański, 2021. "How Long Will Combustion Vehicles Be Used? Polish Transport Sector on the Pathway to Climate Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:23:p:7871-:d:686421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ján Horváth & Janka Szemesová, 2023. "Is a Carbon-Neutral Pathway in Road Transport Possible? A Case Study from Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Andri Ottesen & Sumayya Banna & Basil Alzougool, 2023. "Women Will Drive the Demand for EVs in the Middle East over the Next 10 Years—Lessons from Today’s Kuwait and 1960s USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Rafael Estevez & Laura Aguado-Deblas & Francisco J. López-Tenllado & Felipa M. Bautista & Antonio A. Romero & Diego Luna, 2024. "Internal Combustion Engines and Carbon-Neutral Fuels: A Perspective on Emission Neutrality in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Anton Manakhov & Maxim Orlov & Mustafa Babiker & Abdulaziz S. Al-Qasim, 2022. "A Perspective on Decarbonizing Mobility: An All-Electrification vs. an All-Hydrogenization Venue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-13, July.

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