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Liquidity and Business Cycles—With Occasional Disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Willi Semmler

    (Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY 10003, USA
    Department of Economics, Bielefeld University, 33615 Bielefeld, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Gabriel R. Padró Rosario

    (Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY 10003, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Levent Koçkesen

    (Department of Economics, Nazarbayev University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Some financial disruptions that started in California, U.S., in March 2023, resulting in the closure of several medium-size U.S. banks, shed new light on the role of liquidity in business cycle dynamics. In the normal path of the business cycle, liquidity and output mutually interact. Small shocks generally lead to mean reversion through market forces, as a low degree of liquidity dissipation does not significantly disrupt the economic dynamics. However, larger shocks and greater liquidity dissipation arising from runs on financial institutions and contagion effects can trigger tipping points, financial disruptions, and economic downturns. The latter poses severe challenges for Central Banks, which during normal times, usually maintain a hands-off approach with soft regulation and monitoring, allowing the market to operate. However, in severe times of liquidity dissipation, they must swiftly restore liquidity flows and rebuild trust in stability to avoid further disruptions and meltdowns. In this paper, we present a nonlinear model of the liquidity–macro interaction and econometrically explore those types of dynamic features with data from the U.S. economy. Guided by a theoretical model, we use nonlinear econometric methods of a Smooth Transition Regression type to study those features, which provide and suggest further regulation and monitoring guidelines and institutional enforcement of rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Willi Semmler & Gabriel R. Padró Rosario & Levent Koçkesen, 2023. "Liquidity and Business Cycles—With Occasional Disruptions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:27-:d:1298773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    2. Semmler, Willi & Sieveking, Malte, 1993. "Nonlinear liquidity-growth dynamics with corridor-stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 189-208, October.
    3. Robert W. Dimand, 2005. "Fisher, Keynes, and the Corridor of Stability," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 185-199, January.
    4. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
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