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The reaction of interest rates to the employment report: the role of policy anticipations

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  • Timothy Cook
  • Steven Korn
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    Abstract

    Interest rates have reacted strongly to the monthly employment report in recent years. The authors document the reaction of rates to the report and provide evidence that it has been stronger since the mid-1980s than in earlier years. Evidently the report now has greater impact than formerly on expectations of where the Fed is going to move the federal funds rate. These expectations influence longer-term money market rates.

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    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_review/1991/pdf/er770501.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its journal Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1991)
    Issue (Month): Sep ()
    Pages: 3-12

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1991:i:sep:p:3-12:n:v.77no.5

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    Related research

    Keywords: Interest rates ; Employment (Economic theory) ; Monetary policy;

    References

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    1. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
    2. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1989. "Interest rates and economic announcements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 34-46.
    3. Falk, Barry & Orazem, Peter F, 1985. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 562-64, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
    2. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    4. Dieter Hess, 2001. "Surprises in U.S. macroeconomic releases: Determinants of their relative impact on T-Bond futures," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
    5. Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
    6. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December.
    7. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
    8. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Price formation and liquidity in the U.S. treasuries market: evidence from intraday patterns around announcements," Research Paper 9633, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Adrienne A. Kearney, 2003. "The Changing Probability of a Monetary Policy Response to Inflation and Employment Announcements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 565-574, Fall.
    10. repec:fth:prinin:367 is not listed on IDEAS

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