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Price formation and liquidity in the U.S. treasuries market: evidence from intraday patterns around announcements

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Author Info
Michael J. Fleming
Eli M. Remolona

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Abstract

We find striking intraday adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasuries market around the time of macroeconomic announcements. The patterns suggest certain hypotheses about price formation and liquidity provision in multiple-dealer markets. These hypotheses assign new importance to public information, heterogeneous views, sluggish price discovery, traditional inventory-control behavior by market makers, and liquidity traders who react with a lag to price changes.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9633.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9633

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Related research
Keywords: Open market operations ; Government securities;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Krinsky, Itzhak & Lee, Jason, 1996. " Earnings Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1523-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin Lumsdaine, 1996. "Public Information and the Persistence of Bond Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1996. "DM-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," NBER Working Papers 5783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32. [Downloadable!]
  8. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. " An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-64, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1989. "Interest rates and economic announcements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 34-46. [Downloadable!]
  11. Berry, Thomas D & Howe, Keith M, 1994. " Public Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1331-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  13. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1991:i:sep:p:3-12:n:v.77no.5 is not listed on IDEAS
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  15. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Strongin, Steven & Tarhan, Vefa, 1990. "Money Supply Announcements and the Market's Perception of Federal Reserve Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 135-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-72. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Thornton, Daniel L., 1989. "The effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 573-587, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Steven Strongin & Vefa Tarhan, 1990. "Money supply announcements and the market's perception of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  26. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  27. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 117-134, March. [Downloadable!]
  29. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. V. Vance Roley & Rick Troll, 1983. "The impact of new economic information on the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Feb, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  31. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 269-283, September. [Downloadable!]
  32. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dominique Dupont, 1997. "Extracting information from trading volume," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Dominique Dupont, 1997. "Trading volume and information distribution in a market-clearing framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Mouna Cherkaoui & Eric Ghysels, 1999. "Emerging Markets and Trading Costs," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-04, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. S. Kim & J. Sheen, . "International; Linkages & Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US," Working Papers 9811, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Ana del Río & Alicia Sanchis, 2000. "Estimating Liquidity Premia in the Spanish Government Securities Market," Banco de España Working Papers 0017, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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