Can We Improve upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?
AbstractWe explore the feasibility of improving upon the preliminary estimates of payroll employment growth from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics by predicting subsequent revisions to these estimates, using the preliminary estimates themselves and other information available concurrently. Results of statistical tests suggest that the preliminary estimates can be improved upon; that is, they are not "efficient forecasts" of the revised estimates. The improvement of preliminary estimates as indicators of estimates of employment growth following annual benchmarks is particularly large; the unanticipated component of the revision based on the annual benchmarks is reduced by more than 22 percent.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 9 (1991)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
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- Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.
- Frank Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Phillips, Keith R. & Nordlund, James, 2012. "The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 431-434.
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