Uncertainty about national income growth poses significant macroeconomic risk to households all over the world. To help reduce investors' exposure, researchers have proposed a controversial new set of security markets called macro markets. These international markets would trade long-term claims on the income of an entire country or region. For example, in a macro market for the United States, an investor could buy a claim on the U.S. national income and then receive dividends equal to a fraction of national income for as long as the claim is held. Although many barriers stand in the way of the markets' development - including investors' focus on short-term portfolio performance, sizable startup costs, and contract enforcement difficulties - the potential benefits of these markets are great.
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.
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Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
"Prediction Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004.
"Prediction Markets,"
Research Papers
1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
[Downloadable!]