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A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998

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  • Abbigail J. Chiodo
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

This paper uses a currency crisis framework to analyze the currency devaluation and debt default of post-Soviet Russia in August 1998. The authors show that even though the Russian economy recorded positive growth immediately preceding the default, the atmosphere was reflective of an impending crisis. The authors then consider the symptoms of a currency crisis—specifically public and private debt responsibilities, devaluation expectations, and contractionary monetary policy—and show that they were present in Russia at that time. Three generations of currency crisis models are reviewed, followed by speculation that the Russian default was a product not only of fiscal deficits but also of a fragile financial system and contractionary monetary policy. The authors address the possibility that the usual prescription for a currency crisis, that is, increasing interest rates, may have accelerated the default and that a case-by-case prescription may afford a better solution than a blanket policy of increasing interest rates in the face of devaluation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages: 7-18

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:nov:p:7-18:n:v.84no.6

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Keywords: Financial crises - Russia ; Russia;

References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
  4. V. Popov, 2000. "Lessons of the Currency Crisis in Russia and in Other Countries," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(1), pages 45-73, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dobler, Constanze & Hagemann, Harald, 2011. "Economic growth in the post-socialist Russian Federation after 1991: The role of Institutions," Violette Reihe Arbeitspapiere 34/2011, Promotionsschwerpunkt "Globalisierung und Beschaeftigung".
  2. Thomas Dohmen & Hartmut Lehmann & Mark E. Schaffer, 2008. "Wage Policies of a Russian Firm and the Financial Crisis of 1998: Evidence from Personnel Data - 1997 to 2002," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 771, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Tomas Slacik, 2010. "An almost-too-late warning mechanism for currency crises," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(1), pages 123-141, 01.
  4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
  5. Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, 2012. "Some Possible Consequences of a U.S. Government Default," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(1), pages 24-40, January.
  6. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings: Implications for the policy of lending into arrears," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0805, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Panetta, Fabio & Correa, Ricardo & Davies, Michael & Di Cesare, Antonio & Marques, José-Manuel & Nadal de Simone, Francisco & Signoretti, Federico & Vespro, Cristina & Vildo, Siret & Wieland, Martin , 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," MPRA Paper 32581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Vitor Gaspar & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist," NBER Working Papers 12277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de Espa�a.

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