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An Investigation into the 1999 Collapse of the Brazilian Real

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  • Saqib, Omar F.

    ()
    (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))

Abstract

This study argues that the political considerations were an important factor behind the crisis of the Brazilian real in January 1999. The divided coalition government and a president facing impending elections eschewed the correction of external misalignments and the fiscal austerity at a time when the markets were already excited by the 1997-98 East Asian and 1998 Russian financial crises. The hypothesis is established after confirming the vulnerability of Brazilian economy to currency crisis through Masson’s model of multiple equilibria and then it is tested by running a maximum likelihood logit regression.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 193-206

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Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0161

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References

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  1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  7. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1989. "The Political Economy of Overvaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 850-55, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2007. "An Analysis of Pakistan s Vulnerability to Economic Crisis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 597-610.

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