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The vanishing middle: job polarization and workers’ response to the decline in middle-skill jobs

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  • Didem Tuzemen
  • Jonathan L. Willis

Abstract

The share of middle-skill jobs in the United States has fallen sharply in the wake of advancing technology, the rise in outsourcing jobs overseas, and contractions in manufacturing. This shift of employment toward high- and low-skill jobs, known as "job polarization," is not well understood ; Tuzemen and Willis analyze thirty years of data from the Current Population Survey and show that changes in job composition within industries have been the primary driver of job polarization, not shifts in employment away from industries such as manufacturing. ; They also find that women have responded to the trend with increased educational attainment and a pronounced shift toward high-skill jobs, while men have shifted more evenly toward both high- and low-skill jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Didem Tuzemen & Jonathan L. Willis, 2013. "The vanishing middle: job polarization and workers’ response to the decline in middle-skill jobs," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 98(Q I), pages 5-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2013:i:qi:p:5-32:n:v.98no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Echeverri-Carroll, Elsie L. & Oden, Michael D. & Gibson, David V. & Johnston, Evan A., 2018. "Unintended consequences on gender diversity of high-tech growth and labor market polarization," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 209-217.
    2. Marianna Kudlyak & Murat Tasci & Didem Tuzemen, 2019. "Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies," Working Papers 19-30R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    3. Fabio Cerina & Alessio Moro & Michelle Rendall, 2021. "The Role Of Gender In Employment Polarization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1655-1691, November.
    4. Andrea Salvatori, 2018. "The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Didem Tuzemen & Jonathan L. Willis, 2015. "Opportunity knocks: improved matching of jobs and workers," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, May.
    6. Theo Sparreboom & Alexander Tarvid, 2016. "Imbalanced Job Polarization and Skills Mismatch in Europe," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(1), pages 15-42, July.
    7. Jordan Rappaport, 2015. "Millennials, baby boomers, and rebounding multifamily home construction," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, June.
    8. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Föll, Tobias & Hartmann, Anna, 2019. "A Joint Theory of Polarization and Deunionization," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203558, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Department, 2017. "Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment," Research Working Paper RWP 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Winegard, Benjamin M. & Winegard, Bo M., 2018. "The emerging science of evolutionary criminology," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 122-126.
    12. Tüzemen, Didem, 2019. "Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 97-100.

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