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Multiplicador dos gastos do governo em períodos de expansão e recessão: evidências empíricas para o Brasil

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  • Grudter, Vanessa
  • Aragon, Edilean Kleber

Abstract

Neste trabalho, nós estimamos um vetor autorregressivo de transição não-linear com a finalidade de verificar se o multiplicador dos gastos do governo brasileiro são dependentes do ciclo econômico. O período de análise vai do primeiro trimestre de 1999 ao quatro de 2015. Além dos gastos consolidados do governo, calculamos o multiplicador de consumo, investimento e salários pagos pelo governo aos servidores públicos. Os resultados mostram que os multiplicadores dos gastos do governo se comportam da mesma maneira em períodos de recessão e expansão. Esse resultado é robusto a choques nos gastos do governo dados em períodos de expansão forte e recessão profunda, ao multiplicador de gastos do governo controlado pelo investimento, à razão dívida/PIB e ao grau de abertura econômica e taxa de câmbio.

Suggested Citation

  • Grudter, Vanessa & Aragon, Edilean Kleber, 2017. "Multiplicador dos gastos do governo em períodos de expansão e recessão: evidências empíricas para o Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66441
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