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Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District)

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS; Ural Federal University)

  • Aleksandr Nikolaevich Tyrsin

    (Ural Federal University; Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS)

  • Maria Sergeevna Pecherkina

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS)

  • Natalia Leonidovna Nikulina

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS)

Abstract

Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence. The authors view welfare in the region from two viewpoints: an individual and a territory, which implies definition and estimation of risks for each of them. The goal of the study is to estimate the risks to welfare of an individual and a territory, which means solving the following tasks: 1) defining the category ‘risk to welfare of an individual and a territory’; 2) estimating integral risks for the Ural Federal District’s territories; 3) estimating the probability of integral risk reaching critical zone. The methods of study used by the authors: indicative analysis, integration of objective function through Monte Carlo statistical trials method. The object of the study is the regions of the Ural Federal District (subjects of the Russian Federation), timeframe – 2001–2016, information mass – official data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the calculations, the authors conclude the following: all regions of the Ural Federal District are in the high-risk zone and have low probability of reaching critical risk zone. The results can be used in managing the risks through development of roadmaps on minimization of risk and probability of aggravation. The proposed measures allow decreasing the integral risk and increasing welfare level of an individual and a territory

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin & Aleksandr Nikolaevich Tyrsin & Maria Sergeevna Pecherkina & Natalia Leonidovna Nikulina, 2018. "Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District)," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 36-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:far:spaeco:y:2018:i:2:p:36-51
    DOI: 10.14530/se.2018.2.036-051
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksandr Tatarkin & Natalya Krivenko & Nataliya Kuznetsova, 2015. "Dialectics of Rational Change Management in Regional Social Systems," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 125-137.
    2. Just, Richard E. & Just, David R., 2011. "Global identification of risk preferences with revealed preference data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 6-17, May.
    3. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2004. "Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780121706210.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    welfare of an individual and a territory; risk; probability; region; assessment method; roadmap; Ural Federal District;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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