IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v54y2023i2p125-147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household Consumption and the Housing Net Worth Channel in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • David Cronin

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Kieran McQuinn

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

Abstract

The performance of the Irish economy varied considerably over the period 2002-2019, with a credit-led boom up to 2007 being followed by a sharp fall in economic activity and house prices in the following five years and then a recovery in both output and the housing market. This provides a valuable sample for investigating the relevance of the housing net worth channel to consumption developments. The evidence presented here indicates the channel being active in Ireland during the 2007-2012 downturn with a fall in house prices being associated with a decline in consumption. It does not have an impact outside that downturn. Accordingly, the results add to the international evidence of how an accumulation of household debt and a downturn in house prices has an adverse impact on consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Household Consumption and the Housing Net Worth Channel in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 125-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:54:y:2023:i:2:p:125-147
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esr.ie/article/view/2234/754
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2015. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-41.
    3. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    6. Le Blanc, Julia & Lydon, Reamonn, 2019. "Indebtedness and spending: What happens when the music stops?," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    8. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    9. David Cronin & Kieran Mc Quinn, 2021. "House Prices and the Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel: The Case of the Irish Economy," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 54(2), pages 199-221.
    10. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," NBER Working Papers 16965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.
    13. FitzGerald, John, 2020. "Understanding recent trends in the Irish economy," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    15. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Price Expectations, Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 478-513, April.
    16. John FitzGerald, 2020. "National Accounts for a Global Economy: The Case of Ireland," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, pages 65-101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    18. Honohan, Patrick, 2021. "Is Ireland Really the most Prosperous Country in Europe?," Economic Letters 1/EL/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "The housing net worth channel and the public finances: evidence from a European country panel," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1251-1265, October.
    2. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Labour Market Fluctuations and the Housing Net Worth Channel in the EU," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-22, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Labour Market Fluctuations and the Housing Net Worth Channel in the EU," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Consumption and housing net worth: Cross-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    4. Apostolos Fasianos & Reamonn Lydon, 2022. "Do households with debt cut back their consumption more? New evidence from the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 737-760, July.
    5. Mairead de Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2019. "Household Leverage and Asymmetric Housing Wealth Effects- Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2022. "Family Finances and Debt Overhang: Evolving Consumption Patterns of Spanish Households," IZA Discussion Papers 15222, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Arrondel, Luc & Lamarche, Pierre & Savignac, Frédérique, 2019. "Does inequality matter for the consumption-wealth channel? Empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 139-165.
    8. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and Household Debt: What is Wrong with Swedish Macroprudential Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    10. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    11. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Do house prices matter for household consumption?," CPB Discussion Paper 396.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Le Blanc, Julia & Lydon, Reamonn, 2019. "Indebtedness and spending: What happens when the music stops?," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    14. Chen, Xin & Qin, Yaohua & Xiao, He & Zhang, Yifei, 2019. "Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China," MPRA Paper 95375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jim Been & Susann Rohwedder & Michael Hurd, 2020. "Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 113-128, March.
    16. Nakajima, Jouchi, 2020. "The role of household debt heterogeneity on consumption: Evidence from Japanese household data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 186-197.
    17. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    18. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, March.
    19. Marco Angrisani & Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2015. "The Effect of Housing and Stock Wealth Losses on Spending in the Great Recession," Working Papers WR-1101, RAND Corporation.
    20. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:54:y:2023:i:2:p:125-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aedin Doris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.