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Deterministic Effects of Volatility on Mixed Frequency GARCH in Means MIDAS Model: Evidence from Turkey

Author

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  • Fehmi Özsoy

    (Haci Bayram Veli University, Emniyet Mahallesi Muammer Yaþar Bostanci Caddesi, No:4, Beþevler/Ankara, Turkey.)

  • Nükhet Doðan

    (Haci Bayram Veli University, Emniyet Mahallesi Muammer Yaþar Bostanci Caddesi, No:4, Beþevler/Ankara, Turkey.)

Abstract

Volatility is a key concept for understanding the dual relationships between the economic variables since it is inversely related to the stability of economies. Many models such as GARCH models have been constructed through time to understand which determinants and conditions can affect the volatility. These models mostly show the significant relationships between the volatilities generated by the low frequency macroeconomic activities and the high frequency financial variables in a stochastic way. However, it is required to check whether there exist deterministic effects of volatilities on high frequency economic variables. In order to reveal these deterministic effects, we developed a new component-wise model, namely GARCH-M MIDAS model. We formulate this model on stock prices and exchange rates, in which the long run volatility is driven by consumer price and industrial production indexes in a separate way. Hence, our empirical analyses support that both types of volatilities have statistically significant deterministic effects on the asset pricing of high frequency financial variables. We also find that macroeconomic activities have a significant role on the asset pricing in long horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Fehmi Özsoy & Nükhet Doðan, 2022. "Deterministic Effects of Volatility on Mixed Frequency GARCH in Means MIDAS Model: Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:1-20
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MIDAS; GARCH-MIDAS; Long Run; Short Run; Deterministic Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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