IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v115y2022icp251-261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Passively wait for gridlock, or proactively invest in service? Strategies to promote car-to-transit switches among aspirational urbanites in rapidly developing contexts

Author

Listed:
  • Chakrabarti, Sandip

Abstract

As planners and policymakers in cities around the world struggle to attract and retain public transit users, this paper explores strategies to promote transit adoption in contexts where the odds are stacked against transit. Using travel behavior data from India's National Capital Region – one of the most congested metropolitan areas globally that is experiencing unprecedented growth in personal vehicle ownership and plummeting transit ridership – this study analyzes the choice of intra-urban (metro) rail over personal car for commute trips within a specific population sub-group that is fast adopting the personal car and exiting the transit market. The objective of this mode choice analysis that employs both logistic regression modeling and the propensity-score matching technique is to identify multi-modal service quality/performance factors that determine metro rail vs. car choice, and thereby recommend efficient and effective interventions for inducing car-to-transit switches in addition to retaining existing transit riders. Results suggest that increasing metro rail's travel time competitiveness relative to car (particularly for long distance commuters), service frequency and safety level, and raising car parking cost at the destination can increase the likelihood of choice of metro rail over car in the study context. Interestingly, increase in traffic congestion and travel time unreliability of the car mode are not expected to automatically boost the demand for metro rail use, all else equal. As the momentum towards more car adoption continues, this study shows that deteriorating traffic conditions may not push drivers out of cars; rather, public transit has to step up and pull drivers out of cars. For planners and policymakers, this study indicates that rather than passively waiting for driving conditions to worsen, they should proactively invest in transit service quality improvements. This study also highlights the importance of communicating service changes to the traveling public in order to efficiently translate interventions to behavior changes, given the dissonance between travelers' perceptions of multi-modal travel conditions and actual travel conditions. This paper further demonstrates that analysis of travelers' perception errors, including variation in error across travelers, is important for accurately modeling travel behavior changes in response to interventions. The findings add to the literature on mode choice analysis, and provide strategic advice for transit agencies in India and across other comparable contexts globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Chakrabarti, Sandip, 2022. "Passively wait for gridlock, or proactively invest in service? Strategies to promote car-to-transit switches among aspirational urbanites in rapidly developing contexts," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 251-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:115:y:2022:i:c:p:251-261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21003395
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhu, Charles & Zhu, Yiliang & Lu, Rongzhu & He, Ren & Xia, Zhaolin, 2012. "Perceptions and aspirations for car ownership among Chinese students attending two universities in the Yangtze Delta, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 315-323.
    2. Bellizzi, Maria Grazia & dell'Olio, Luigi & Eboli, Laura & Mazzulla, Gabriella, 2020. "Heterogeneity in desired bus service quality from users’ and potential users’ perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 365-377.
    3. Lam, Terence C. & Small, Kenneth A., 0. "The value of time and reliability: measurement from a value pricing experiment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 231-251, April.
    4. Jaime Allen & Laura Eboli & Gabriella Mazzulla & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2020. "Effect of critical incidents on public transport satisfaction and loyalty: an Ordinal Probit SEM-MIMIC approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 827-863, April.
    5. Grisé, Emily & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2018. "Where is the happy transit rider? Evaluating satisfaction with regional rail service using a spatial segmentation approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PA), pages 84-96.
    6. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Cao, Xinyu, 2008. "Examining the impacts of residential self-selection on travel behavior: A focus on methodologies," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 204-228, March.
    7. Diab, Ehab & Kasraian, Dena & Miller, Eric J. & Shalaby, Amer, 2020. "The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-112.
    8. Forsey, David & Habib, Khandker Nurul & Miller, Eric J. & Shalaby, Amer, 2013. "Evaluating the impacts of a new transit system on commuting mode choice using a GEV model estimated to revealed preference data: A case study of the VIVA system in York Region, Ontario," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Meng, Meng & Rau, Andreas & Mahardhika, Hita, 2018. "Public transport travel time perception: Effects of socioeconomic characteristics, trip characteristics and facility usage," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PA), pages 24-37.
    10. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    11. Javier Asensio, 2002. "Transport Mode Choice by Commuters to Barcelona's CBD," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(10), pages 1881-1895, September.
    12. He, Sylvia Y. & Thøgersen, John, 2017. "The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity: The case of Guangzhou," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-67.
    13. Calfee, John & Winston, Clifford, 1998. "The value of automobile travel time: implications for congestion policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 83-102, July.
    14. Michael P. Keane & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Complex Decision Making: The Roles of Cognitive Limitations, Cognitive Decline and Ageing," Economics Papers 2016-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Zhan Zhao & Jinhua Zhao, 2020. "Car pride and its behavioral implications: an exploration in Shanghai," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 793-810, April.
    16. Small, Kenneth A., 2001. "The Value of Pricing," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0rm449sx, University of California Transportation Center.
    17. Chakrabarti, Sandip, 2017. "How can public transit get people out of their cars? An analysis of transit mode choice for commute trips in Los Angeles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 80-89.
    18. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher & Regine Gerike & Thomas Götschi, 2017. "Reducing car dependence in the heart of Europe: lessons from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 4-28, January.
    19. Echaniz, Eneko & Ho, Chinh Q. & Rodriguez, Andres & dell'Olio, Luigi, 2019. "Comparing best-worst and ordered logit approaches for user satisfaction in transit services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 752-769.
    20. Klein, Nicholas J. & Smart, Michael J., 2017. "Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-29.
    21. Janet Currie & Reed Walker, 2011. "Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 65-90, January.
    22. Altieri, Marcelo & Silva, Cecília & Terabe, Shintaro, 2020. "Give public transit a chance: A comparative analysis of competitive travel time in public transit modal share," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    23. Echaniz, Eneko & dell’Olio, Luigi & Ibeas, Ángel, 2018. "Modelling perceived quality for urban public transport systems using weighted variables and random parameters," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 31-39.
    24. Xinyu (Jason) Cao & Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Susan L. Handy, 2008. "Examining the Impacts of Residential Self‐Selection on Travel Behaviour: A Focus on Empirical Findings," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 359-395, October.
    25. Matthias Sweet & Mengke Chen, 2011. "Does regional travel time unreliability influence mode choice?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 625-642, July.
    26. Eldeeb, Gamal & Mohamed, Moataz, 2020. "Quantifying preference heterogeneity in transit service desired quality using a latent class choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 119-133.
    27. Lee, Hasik & Park, Ho-Chul & Kho, Seung-Young & Kim, Dong-Kyu, 2019. "Assessing transit competitiveness in Seoul considering actual transit travel times based on smart card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    28. Keane, M.P. & Thorp, S., 2016. "Complex Decision Making," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 661-709, Elsevier.
    29. Cao, Xinyu & Mokhtarian, Patricia & Handy, Susan, 2008. "Examining The Impacts of Residential Self-Selection on Travel Behavior: Methodologies and Empirical Findings," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt08x1k476, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    30. Nan Zhong & Jing Cao & Yuzhu Wang, 2017. "Traffic Congestion, Ambient Air Pollution, and Health: Evidence from Driving Restrictions in Beijing," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 821-856.
    31. Graham-Rowe, Ella & Skippon, Stephen & Gardner, Benjamin & Abraham, Charles, 2011. "Can we reduce car use and, if so, how? A review of available evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 401-418, June.
    32. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher, 2012. "Demand for Public Transport in Germany and the USA: An Analysis of Rider Characteristics," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 541-567, June.
    33. Xuemei Fu & Zhicai Juan, 2017. "Understanding public transit use behavior: integration of the theory of planned behavior and the customer satisfaction theory," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 1021-1042, September.
    34. Yan, Xiang & Levine, Jonathan & Marans, Robert, 2019. "The effectiveness of parking policies to reduce parking demand pressure and car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-50.
    35. Allen, Jaime & Eboli, Laura & Forciniti, Carmen & Mazzulla, Gabriella & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2019. "The role of critical incidents and involvement in transit satisfaction and loyalty," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-69.
    36. Lunke, Erik B. & Fearnley, N. & Aarhaug, J., 2021. "Public transport competitiveness vs. the car: Impact of relative journey time and service attributes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    37. van Lierop, Dea & El-Geneidy, Ahmed, 2016. "Enjoying loyalty: The relationship between service quality, customer satisfaction, and behavioral intentions in public transit," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 50-59.
    38. Innocenti, Alessandro & Lattarulo, Patrizia & Pazienza, Maria Grazia, 2013. "Car stickiness: Heuristics and biases in travel choice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 158-168.
    39. de Donnea, F. X., 1972. "Consumer behaviour, transport mode choice and value of time: Some micro-economic models," Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 355-382, February.
    40. Arefeh Nasri & Carlos Carrion & Lei Zhang & Babak Baghaei, 2020. "Using propensity score matching technique to address self-selection in transit-oriented development (TOD) areas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 359-371, February.
    41. Thorhauge, Mikkel & Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Haustein, Sonja, 2020. "Mobility needs, activity patterns and activity flexibility: How subjective and objective constraints influence mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 255-272.
    42. Arnold van Exel, Nicolaas Jacob & Rietveld, Piet, 2010. "Perceptions of public transport travel time and their effect on choice-sets among car drivers," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 75-86.
    43. Blumenberg, Evelyn & Ralph, Kelcie & Smart, Michael & Taylor, Brian D., 2016. "Who knows about kids these days? Analyzing the determinants of youth and adult mobility in the U.S. between 1990 and 2009," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-54.
    44. Jun Yang & Avralt-Od Purevjav & Shanjun Li, 2020. "The Marginal Cost of Traffic Congestion and Road Pricing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Beijing," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 418-453, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chakrabarti, Sandip & Kushari, Triparnee & Mazumder, Taraknath, 2022. "Does transportation network centrality determine housing price?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aston, Laura & Currie, Graham & Kamruzzaman, Md. & Delbosc, Alexa & Teller, David, 2020. "Study design impacts on built environment and transit use research," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Ha, Jaehyun & Lee, Sugie & Ko, Joonho, 2020. "Unraveling the impact of travel time, cost, and transit burdens on commute mode choice for different income and age groups," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 147-166.
    3. Eldeeb, Gamal & Mohamed, Moataz, 2020. "Quantifying preference heterogeneity in transit service desired quality using a latent class choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 119-133.
    4. Eldeeb, Gamal & Sears, Sean & Mohamed, Moataz, 2023. "What do users want from transit? Qualitative analysis of current and potential users' perceptions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Kühne, Kathrin & Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2018. "Without a ride in car country – A comparison of carless households in Germany and California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 24-40.
    6. de Oña, Juan, 2021. "Understanding the mediator role of satisfaction in public transport: A cross-country analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 129-149.
    7. Shen, Qing & Chen, Peng & Pan, Haixiao, 2016. "Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 31-44.
    8. Weng, JianCheng & Yu, JiangBo & Di, XiaoJian & Lin, PengFei & Wang, Jing-Jing & Mao, Li-Zeng, 2023. "How does the state of bus operations influence passengers’ service satisfaction? A method considering the differences in passenger preferences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Chakrabarti, Sandip, 2017. "How can public transit get people out of their cars? An analysis of transit mode choice for commute trips in Los Angeles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 80-89.
    10. Maria Grazia Bellizzi & Luigi dell’Olio & Laura Eboli & Carmen Forciniti & Gabriella Mazzulla, 2020. "Passengers’ Expectations on Airlines’ Services: Design of a Stated Preference Survey and Preliminary Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Chakrabarti, Sandip & Giuliano, Genevieve, 2015. "Does service reliability determine transit patronage? Insights from the Los Angeles Metro bus system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 12-20.
    12. Shi, Kunbo & Shao, Rui & De Vos, Jonas & Cheng, Long & Witlox, Frank, 2021. "Is e-shopping likely to reduce shopping trips for car owners? A propensity score matching analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Kamruzzaman, Md. & Baker, Douglas & Washington, Simon & Turrell, Gavin, 2013. "Residential dissonance and mode choice," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-28.
    14. Andrea Baranzini & Stefano Carattini & Linda Tesauro, 2021. "Designing Effective and Acceptable Road Pricing Schemes: Evidence from the Geneva Congestion Charge," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 417-482, July.
    15. Lin, Tao & Wang, Donggen & Zhou, Meng, 2018. "Residential relocation and changes in travel behavior: what is the role of social context change?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 360-374.
    16. Deka, Devajyoti & Carnegie, Jon, 2021. "Predicting transit mode choice of New Jersey workers commuting to New York City from a stated preference survey," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Bert Van Wee & David Banister, 2016. "How to Write a Literature Review Paper?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 278-288, March.
    18. de Oña, Juan, 2020. "The role of involvement with public transport in the relationship between service quality, satisfaction and behavioral intentions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 296-318.
    19. De Borger, Bruno & Van Dender, Kurt, 2003. "Transport tax reform, commuting, and endogenous values of time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 510-530, May.
    20. Guan, Xiaodong & Wang, Donggen, 2019. "Influences of the built environment on travel: A household-based perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 710-724.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:115:y:2022:i:c:p:251-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.