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Autonomous cars and dynamic bottleneck congestion: The effects on capacity, value of time and preference heterogeneity

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  • van den Berg, Vincent A.C.
  • Verhoef, Erik T.

Abstract

‘Autonomous cars’ are cars that can drive themselves without human control. Autonomous cars can safely drive closer together than cars driven by humans, thereby possibly increasing road capacity. By allowing drivers to perform other activities in the vehicle, they may reduce the value of travel time losses (VOT). We investigate the effects of autonomous cars using a dynamic equilibrium model of congestion that captures three main elements: the resulting increase in capacity, the decrease in the VOT for those who acquire one and the implications of the resulting changes in the heterogeneity of VOTs. We do so for three market organizations: private monopoly, perfect competition and public supply. Even though an increased share of autonomous cars raises average capacity, it may hurt existing autonomous car users as those who switch to an autonomous car will impose increased congestion externalities due to their altered departure time behaviour. Depending on which effect dominates, switching to an autonomous vehicle may impose a net negative or positive externality. Often public supply leads to 100% autonomous cars, but it may be optimal to have a mix of car types, especially when there is a net negative externality. With a positive (negative) externality, perfect competition leads to an undersupply (oversupply) of autonomous cars, and a public supplier needs to subsidise (tax) autonomous cars to maximise welfare. A monopolist supplier ignores the capacity effect and adds a mark-up to its price.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Verhoef, Erik T., 2016. "Autonomous cars and dynamic bottleneck congestion: The effects on capacity, value of time and preference heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 43-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:43-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.08.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autonomous cars; Heterogeneity; Bottleneck model; Self-driving cars; Road capacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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