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A case study on Germany’s aviation tax using the synthetic control approach

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  • Borbely, Daniel

Abstract

The German Aviation Tax is a tax levied on departing passengers from German airports. In this paper, we investigate the impact Germany’s aviation tax has had on passenger numbers using the synthetic control method to generate counterfactual passenger numbers for German airports, and for airports outside Germany but near the German border. The results are consistent with passengers engaging in cross-border substitution in response to the aviation tax. Most tax exempt airports near German borders have made sizeable gains in passenger numbers since Germany introduced its aviation tax. Within Germany there appears to be a clear distinction in the impact on small/regional airports and that on larger hubs. From a policy perspective, the finding of a cross-border substitution effect implies that the aviation tax might not be effective in curbing overall emissions from air travel, whilst also leading to lost tax revenues through the displacement of passengers to neighbouring countries.

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  • Borbely, Daniel, 2019. "A case study on Germany’s aviation tax using the synthetic control approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 377-395.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:377-395
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin, Mengwei & Shalaby, Amer & Feng, Shumin & Zhao, Hu, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on urban rail transit ridership using the Synthetic Control Method," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Chen, Yilin & Hou, Meng & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2023. "Government interventions in regional airline markets based on aircraft size—Welfare and environmental implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Helmers, Viola & van der Werf, Edwin, 2022. "Did the German Aviation Tax Affect Passenger Numbers? New Evidence Employing Difference-in-differences," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264118, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aviation taxes; Passenger demand; Synthetic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

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