IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v193y2023ics0040162523003098.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of social-ecological systems at the crossroads of quantitative and qualitative methods

Author

Listed:
  • Jahel, Camille
  • Bourgeois, Robin
  • Bourgoin, Jérémy
  • Daré, William's
  • De Lattre-Gasquet, Marie
  • Delay, Etienne
  • Dumas, Patrice
  • Le Page, Christophe
  • Piraux, Marc
  • Prudhomme, Rémi

Abstract

Urgent calls to transform societies toward more sustainability make the practice of anticipation more and more necessary. The progressive development of computational technologies has opened room for a growing use of quantitative methods to explore the future of social-ecological systems, in addition to qualitative methods. This warrants investigating issues of power relationships and discontinuities and unknowns that arise when mingling quantitative and qualitative anticipatory methods. We first reflected on the semantics attached to these methods. We then conducted a comparative analysis on the way the articulation of quantitative and qualitative methods was conducted, based on an in-depth analysis of a set of eleven anticipatory projects completed by several external case studies. We propose insights to classify projects according to the timing (successive, iterative or convergent) and the purpose of the articulation (imagination, refinement, assessment and awareness raising). We use these insights to explore methodological implications and power relationships and then discuss the ways to inform or frame anticipatory projects that seek to combine these methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahel, Camille & Bourgeois, Robin & Bourgoin, Jérémy & Daré, William's & De Lattre-Gasquet, Marie & Delay, Etienne & Dumas, Patrice & Le Page, Christophe & Piraux, Marc & Prudhomme, Rémi, 2023. "The future of social-ecological systems at the crossroads of quantitative and qualitative methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:193:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523003098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122624
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523003098
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122624?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jahel, Camille & Vall, Eric & Rodriguez, Zermeño & Bégué, Agnès & Baron, Christian & Augusseau, Xavier & Lo Seen, Danny, 2018. "Analysing plausible futures from past patterns of land change in West Burkina Faso," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 60-74.
    2. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Varho, Vilja & Tapio, Petri, 2013. "Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique — The case of transport and climate," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 611-630.
    4. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
    5. Kalt, Gerald & Mayer, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Kaufmann, Lisa & Lauk, Christian & Matej, Sarah & Röös, Elin & Theurl, Michaela C. & Erb, Karl-Heinz, 2021. "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    6. Anne van Bruggen & Igor Nikolic & Jan Kwakkel, 2019. "Modeling with Stakeholders for Transformative Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Carina Wyborn & Federico Davila & Laura Pereira & Michelle Lim & Isis Alvarez & Gretchen Henderson & Amy Luers & Maria Jose Martinez Harms & Kristal Maze & Jasper Montana & Melanie Ryan & Chris Sandbr, 2020. "Imagining transformative biodiversity futures," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 670-672, September.
    8. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 789-800.
    9. David Bernard & Marie de Lattre-Gasquet & Sandrine Mathy & Jean-Eudes Moncomble & Julie Rozenberg, 2014. "Prospective énergétique : Le possible, le souhaitable et l’acceptable," Post-Print halshs-01285644, HAL.
    10. De Cian, Enrica & Dasgupta, Shouro & Hof, Andries F. & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Köhler, Jonathan & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    12. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    13. Sondoss Elsawah & Serena Hamilton & Anthony J. Jakeman & Dale Rothman & Vanessa Schweizer & Evelina Trutnevyte & Henrik Carlsen & Crystal Drakes & Bob Frame & Baihua Fu & Céline Guivarch & Marjolijn H, 2020. "Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making," Post-Print halshs-02882176, HAL.
    14. Nathan J. Bennett & Jessica Blythe & Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor & Gerald G. Singh & U. Rashid Sumaila, 2019. "Just Transformations to Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Hurmekoski, Elias & Sjølie, Hanne K., 2018. "Comparing forest sector modelling and qualitative foresight analysis: Cases on wood products industry," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 11-16.
    16. Bruno Losch & Julian May, 2023. "Place-Based Approaches to Food System Resilience: Emerging Trends and Lessons from South Africa," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, in: Christophe Béné & Stephen Devereux (ed.), Resilience and Food Security in a Food Systems Context, chapter 0, pages 321-353, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Parker, Andrew M. & Srinivasan, Sinduja V. & Lempert, Robert J. & Berry, Sandra H., 2015. "Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-77.
    18. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    19. Olivier Barreteau, 2003. "Our Companion Modelling Approach," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(2), pages 1-1.
    20. van Ittersum, M. K. & Rabbinge, R. & van Latesteijn, H. C., 1998. "Exploratory land use studies and their role in strategic policy making," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 309-330, November.
    21. Guillaume Chérel & Clémentine Cottineau & Romain Reuillon, 2015. "Beyond Corroboration: Strengthening Model Validation by Looking for Unexpected Patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-28, September.
    22. Robertson, Elizabeth & O'Grady, Áine & Barton, John & Galloway, Stuart & Emmanuel-Yusuf, Damiete & Leach, Matthew & Hammond, Geoff & Thomson, Murray & Foxon, Tim, 2017. "Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: An iterative approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-306.
    23. Dong, Congli & Schoups, Gerrit & van de Giesen, Nick, 2013. "Scenario development for water resource planning and management: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 749-761.
    24. Andrea Saltelli & Gabriele Bammer & Isabelle Bruno & Erica Charters & Monica Di Fiore & Emmanuel Didier & Wendy Nelson Espeland & John Kay & Samuele Lo Piano & Deborah Mayo & Roger Pielke Jr & Tommaso, 2020. "Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 482-484, June.
    25. George Cairns & George Wright, 2019. "Making scenario interventions matter: Exploring issues of power and rationality," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernst, Anna & Biß, Klaus H. & Shamon, Hawal & Schumann, Diana & Heinrichs, Heidi U., 2018. "Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 245-257.
    2. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    3. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    4. Bouw, Kathelijne & Noorman, Klaas Jan & Wiekens, Carina J. & Faaij, André, 2021. "Local energy planning in the built environment: An analysis of model characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Lovell, Katherine & Watson, Jim & Hiteva, Ralitsa, 2022. "Infrastructure decision-making: Opening up governance futures within techno-economic modelling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Kwakkel, J.H. & Cunningham, S.C., 2016. "Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 124-134.
    7. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Claire Copeland & Britta Turner & Gareth Powells & Kevin Wilson, 2022. "In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, July.
    9. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.
    10. Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
    11. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    12. Krigsholm, Pauliina & Zavialova, Sofia & Riekkinen, Kirsikka & Ståhle, Pirjo & Viitanen, Kauko, 2017. "Understanding the future of the Finnish cadastral system – A Delphi study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-140.
    13. Vögele, Stefan & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Kleinebrahm, Max & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Bernhard, Jesse & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Weiss, Annika, 2022. "Dissemination of PV-Battery systems in the German residential sector up to 2050: Technological diffusion from multidisciplinary perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    15. Pizarro-Alonso, Amalia & Ravn, Hans & Münster, Marie, 2019. "Uncertainties towards a fossil-free system with high integration of wind energy in long-term planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Johanna Leväsluoto & Johanna Kohl & Anton Sigfrids & Jussi Pihlajamäki & Janne Martikainen, 2021. "Digitalization as an Engine for Change? Building a Vision Pathway towards a Sustainable Health Care System by Using the MLP and Health Economic Decision Modelling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-24, November.
    17. Alexandros Flamos, 2016. "A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-12, January.
    18. Geels, F.W. & McMeekin, A. & Pfluger, B., 2020. "Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity gen," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    20. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:193:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523003098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.