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Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Saltelli
  • Gabriele Bammer
  • Isabelle Bruno
  • Erica Charters
  • Monica Di Fiore
  • Emmanuel Didier
  • Wendy Nelson Espeland
  • John Kay
  • Samuele Lo Piano
  • Deborah Mayo
  • Roger Pielke Jr
  • Tommaso Portaluri
  • Theodore M. Porter
  • Arnald Puy
  • Ismael Rafols
  • Jerome R. Ravetz
  • Erik Reinert
  • Daniel Sarewitz
  • Philip B. Stark
  • Andrew Stirling
  • Jeroen van der Sluijs
  • Paolo Vineis

Abstract

Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Saltelli & Gabriele Bammer & Isabelle Bruno & Erica Charters & Monica Di Fiore & Emmanuel Didier & Wendy Nelson Espeland & John Kay & Samuele Lo Piano & Deborah Mayo & Roger Pielke Jr & Tommaso, 2020. "Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 482-484, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:582:y:2020:i:7813:d:10.1038_d41586-020-01812-9
    DOI: 10.1038/d41586-020-01812-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anja Bauer & Leo Capari & Daniela Fuchs & Titus Udrea, 2023. "Diversification, integration, and opening: developments in modelling for policy," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 977-987.
    2. Simon Robertson, 2021. "Transparency, trust, and integrated assessment models: An ethical consideration for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. Jessica Weinkle, 2022. "An evaluation of North Carolina science advice on COVID-19 pandemic response," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Philipp Eisenhauer & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh & Janós Gabler, 2023. "Structural Models for Policy-Making," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_484, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Lovell, Katherine & Watson, Jim & Hiteva, Ralitsa, 2022. "Infrastructure decision-making: Opening up governance futures within techno-economic modelling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Susanne Jørgensen & Knut H Sørensen, 2023. "Numeric work: The efforts of calculation actors to make numbers count in climate and energy policy," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 243-252.
    7. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    8. Céline Diebold, 2022. "How Meaningful is the Elite Quality Index Ranking?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 137-170, August.
    9. Hebinck, Aniek & Zurek, Monika & Achterbosch, Thom & Forkman, Björn & Kuijsten, Anneleen & Kuiper, Marijke & Nørrung, Birgit & van ’t Veer, Pieter & Leip, Adrian, 2020. "A sustainability compass for policy navigation to sustainable food systems," SocArXiv ab8ts, Center for Open Science.
    10. Ilaria Perissi & Alessandro Lavacchi & Ugo Bardi, 2021. "The Role of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) in Complex Adaptive Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Arnald Puy & Razi Sheikholeslami & Hoshin V. Gupta & Jim W. Hall & Bruce Lankford & Samuele Lo Piano & Jonas Meier & Florian Pappenberger & Amilcare Porporato & Giulia Vico & Andrea Saltelli, 2022. "The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-4, December.
    12. Planque, Benjamin & Aarflot, Johanna M. & Buttay, Lucie & Carroll, JoLynn & Fransner, Filippa & Hansen, Cecilie & Husson, Bérengère & Langangen, Øystein & Lindstrøm, Ulf & Pedersen, Torstein & Primice, 2022. "A standard protocol for describing the evaluation of ecological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    13. Choi, Hyunhong & Koo, Yoonmo, 2023. "New technology product introduction strategy with considerations for consumer-targeted policy intervention and new market entrant," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    14. Allain, Sandrine & Salliou, Nicolas, 2022. "Making differences legible: Incommensurability as a vehicle for sustainable landscape management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. Jahel, Camille & Bourgeois, Robin & Bourgoin, Jérémy & Daré, William's & De Lattre-Gasquet, Marie & Delay, Etienne & Dumas, Patrice & Le Page, Christophe & Piraux, Marc & Prudhomme, Rémi, 2023. "The future of social-ecological systems at the crossroads of quantitative and qualitative methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Ioannidis, John P.A. & Cripps, Sally & Tanner, Martin A., 2022. "Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 423-438.
    17. Roster, Kirstin & Connaughton, Colm & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2022. "Forecasting new diseases in low-data settings using transfer learning," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    19. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Coilín ÓhAiseadha & Gerry A. Quinn & Ronan Connolly & Awwad Wilson & Michael Connolly & Willie Soon & Paul Hynds, 2023. "Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-40, March.
    21. Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2020. "Agent-Based Modeling for Integrating Human Behavior into the Food–Energy–Water Nexus," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-25, December.
    22. Philipp Eisenhauer & Jano's Gabler & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh, 2021. "Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty," Papers 2103.01115, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    23. Paul Lehmann & Silke Beck & Mariana Madruga de Brito & Erik Gawel & Matthias Groß & Annegret Haase & Robert Lepenies & Danny Otto & Johannes Schiller & Sebastian Strunz & Daniela Thrän, 2021. "Environmental Sustainability Post-COVID-19: Scrutinizing Popular Hypotheses from a Social Science Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.
    24. Francesco Dottori & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Alessandra Bianchi & Lorenzo Alfieri & Luc Feyen, 2023. "Cost-effective adaptation strategies to rising river flood risk in Europe," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 196-202, February.
    25. Igor Calzada, 2020. "Platform and Data Co-Operatives amidst European Pandemic Citizenship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-22, October.

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