IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v153y2020ics0040162519303853.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linking investment decisions and future food security to the regulation of genetic-based technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Pavleska, Marija
  • Kerr, William A.

Abstract

The paper makes explicit the link between regulation of genetic-based technologies and long run food security through the effect on investment decisions related to these technologies using a real options model. Of all the drivers of social change, alterations in food security status are one of the most disruptive to societies. Improvements can release individuals and groups from chronic hunger, malnourishment, anxieties stemming from continually having to search for the next meal and obtaining food being a full time occupation. Deterioration can lead to declining productivity, mass migrations, famine and death – all of which can spark social change. Forecasting changes in food security is, hence, important for policy makers. Improving food security requires increases in agricultural productivity. New plant breeding technologies based on genomics do not rely on controversial transgenic technology. It is important to understand the link between regulatory policy and firm's decisions to invest in the development of new crop varieties. By making the link between regulation and investment explicit suggests that the regulatory regime chosen for technological advance in genomics and associated enabling techniques should be considered carefully in the context of the need for investments in productivity enhancing technology and for forecasting food security challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavleska, Marija & Kerr, William A., 2020. "Linking investment decisions and future food security to the regulation of genetic-based technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:153:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519303853
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162519303853
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119926?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stuart Smyth & William Kerr & Peter W. B. Phillips, 2015. "The Unintended Consequences of Technological Change: Winners and Losers from GM Technologies and the Policy Response in the Organic Food Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1993. "The Nature of Option Interactions and the Valuation of Investments with Multiple Real Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    4. Kerr, William A., 2017. "Genomics, International Trade and Food Security," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 18(2), December.
    5. Gordon, Daniel V. & Kerr, William A., 1997. "Was the Babson Prize deserved? An enquiry into an early forecasting model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 417-433, July.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Alston, Julian M. & Beddow, Jason M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2009. "Mendel versus Malthus: Research, Productivity and Food Prices in the Long Run," Staff Papers 53400, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    8. Roper, Stephen & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2016. "Taking risks in the face of uncertainty: An exploratory analysis of green innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 357-363.
    9. James D. Gaisford & Jill E. Hobbs & William A. Kerr & Nicholas Perdikis, 2001. "The Economics of Biotechnology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2305.
    10. Korotayev, Andrey & Bilyuga, Stanislav & Belalov, Ilya & Goldstone, Jack, 2018. "Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 304-310.
    11. Kerr, William A., 2009. "Political Precaution, Pandemics and Protectionism," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14.
    12. Kennedy, Charles Jr., 1988. "Political risk management: A portfolio planning model," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 26-33.
    13. Ephraim Clark & Radu Tunaru, 2003. "Quantification of political risk with multiple dependent sources," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 125-135, June.
    14. Stuart J. Smyth & William A. Kerr & Peter W. B Phillips, 2017. "Biotechnology Regulation and Trade," Natural Resource Management and Policy, Springer, number 978-3-319-53295-0, December.
    15. William A. Kerr & Revadee Yampoin, 2000. "Adoption of Biotechnology in Thailand and the Threat of Intellectual Property Piracy," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 48(4), pages 597-606, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zeng, Tian & Botella-Carrubi, Dolores, 2023. "Improving societal benefit through transformative consumer research: A descriptive review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Nlend Nkott, Anny Lucrèce & Temple, Ludovic, 2021. "Societal acceptability conditions of genome editing for upland rice in Madagascar," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kerr, William A., 2017. "Genomics, International Trade and Food Security," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 18(2), December.
    2. Agliardi, Rossella, 2006. "Options to expand: Some remarks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-72, March.
    3. Wassila Bensahel, 2010. "Une Creation Substantielle De La Valeur Adaptee Aux Entreprises Intensives En Immateriel," Post-Print hal-00479541, HAL.
    4. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A. & Nolan, James F., 2006. "Subsidization of the Biofuel Industry: Security vs. Clean Air?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21321, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Viju, Crina & Kerr, William A., 2010. "Is The Subsidy For Biofuels The Way To Go?," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188117, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    6. Qiang Li & Junwei Wang & Jian Ni & Lap Keung Chu & Congdong Li, 2019. "The optimal time to make a risky investment under a permanent exit option," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(7), pages 2669-2680, October.
    7. Kassar, Ilhem & Lasserre, Pierre, 2004. "Species preservation and biodiversity value: a real options approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 857-879, September.
    8. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Ju, Ming & Trigeorgis, Lenos & Zhang, Xiaotian Tina, 2021. "Outsourcing flexibility under financial constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Panayi, Sylvia & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1998. "Multi-stage Real Options: The Cases of Information Technology Infrastructure and International Bank Expansion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 675-692.
    10. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    11. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2014. "Risk-adjusted Valuation of the Real Option to Invest," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-19, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Bistline, John E. & Comello, Stephen D. & Sahoo, Anshuman, 2018. "Managerial flexibility in levelized cost measures: A framework for incorporating uncertainty in energy investment decisions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 211-225.
    13. Rodrigo R. de Freitas & Diego M.E. Gonçalves & Thiago de S.C.P. Mayrink & Márcio de A. D’agosto, 2018. "Analysis of ore transportation: A financial approach using the Black & Scholes method in real options," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-4.
    14. Mo, Jianlei & Schleich, Joachim & Fan, Ying, 2018. "Getting ready for future carbon abatement under uncertainty – Key factors driving investment with policy implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 453-464.
    15. Ipsmiller, Edith & Brouthers, Keith D. & Dikova, Desislava, 2021. "Which export channels provide real options to SMEs?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6).
    16. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1046 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.
    19. Alonso-Conde, Ana Belen & Brown, Christine & Rojo-Suarez, Javier, 2007. "Public private partnerships: Incentives, risk transfer and real options," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 335-349.
    20. Mombello, Bruno & Olsina, Fernando & Pringles, Rolando, 2023. "Valuing photovoltaic power plants by compound real options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    21. Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:153:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519303853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.