IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v86y2023ics0038012122002695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shocks derived from mining windfalls and horizontal transfers: Exploring the permanent income hypothesis in Chilean municipalities from a spatial competition approach

Author

Listed:
  • Oyarzo, Mauricio
  • Paredes, Dusan

Abstract

We explore how spatial interaction affects the strategic use of municipal income when deciding between 1) an optimal long-run expenditure strategy versus 2) using the current income to finance current activities, a phenomenon known as the permanent income hypothesis. Even when this hypothesis is grounded in temporal logic, insufficient attention has been given to the impact of spatial dependence on this type of budget decision. Therefore, we present two reasons why spatial interaction adds new insight to this discussion. First, subnational governments located inside larger functional areas have lower average costs due to the population concentration, allowing for coordination between jurisdictions to achieve more power of negotiation and to potentially exploit economies of scale. Second, local government decision-making is not independent of other jurisdictions as municipalities would constantly evaluate the others’ actions regarding local tax effort, spending, and debt. While this spatial consideration remains a challenge for theoretical modeling, we offer empirical evidence to evaluate how robust the permanent income hypothesis is when geography is incorporated. Our empirical approach uses dynamic panel data with spatial dependence on debt, expenditure, and the error term. To evaluate our hypothesis, we exploit panel data from 320 Chilean municipalities between 2008 and 2020 and use two sources of income: non-matched grants via mining windfalls and horizontal fiscal transfers among cities. The evidence indicates that jurisdictions make backward-looking decisions regarding spending; that is, there are no significant differences between the short and long run. The results for debt, however, are not robust. Policy pertaining to the use of public resources should consider the spatial dependence between municipalities which should be a crucial factor in budgetary decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Oyarzo, Mauricio & Paredes, Dusan, 2023. "Shocks derived from mining windfalls and horizontal transfers: Exploring the permanent income hypothesis in Chilean municipalities from a spatial competition approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s0038012122002695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012122002695
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101468?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebert, Laura & La Menza, Tania, 2015. "Chile, copper and resource revenue: A holistic approach to assessing commodity dependence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 101-111.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 101-106, May.
    4. Federico Belotti & Gordon Hughes & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2013. "xsmle: A Stata command for spatial panel-data models estimation," German Stata Users' Group Meetings 2013 09, Stata Users Group.
    5. Holtz-Eakin Douglas & Rosen Harvey S. & Tilly Schuyler, 1994. "Intertemporal Analysis of State and Local Government Spending: Theory and Tests," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 159-174, March.
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2013. "Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia, and the Financial Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1526-1560.
    7. Luiz de Mello & Santiago Lago-Pe-as, 2013. "Local government cooperation for joint provision: the experiences of Brazil and Spain with inter-municipal consortia," Chapters, in: Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Challenge of Local Government Size, chapter 9, pages 221-241, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2014. "Political foundations of the resource curse: A simplification and a comment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 194-198.
    9. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    10. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    11. Frederick Van Der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "The Impact of Natural Resources: Survey of Recent Quantitative Evidence," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 205-216, February.
    12. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    13. James A. Robinson & Thierry Verdier, 2013. "The Political Economy of Clientelism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 260-291, April.
    14. Oyarzo, Mauricio & Paredes, Dusan, 2019. "Revisiting the link between resource windfalls and subnational crowding out for local mining economies in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Picazo-Tadeo, Andrés J. & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2021. "Measuring well-being in Colombian departments. The role of geography and demography," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Borge, L.E. & Dahleberg, M. & Tovmo, P., 2001. "The Intertemporal Spending Behavior of Local Governments : A Comparative Analysis of the Scandinavian Countries," Papers 2001:10, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    17. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2012. "Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1241-1260.
    18. Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "Political foundations of the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 447-468, April.
    19. Dahlberg, Matz & Lindstrom, Tomas, 1998. "Are Local Governments Governed by Forward Looking Decision Makers?: An Investigation of Spending Patterns in Swedish Municipalities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 254-271, September.
    20. Anne D. Boschini & Jan Pettersson & Jesper Roine, 2007. "Resource Curse or Not: A Question of Appropriability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 593-617, September.
    21. Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Unsticking the flypaper effect in an uncertain world," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 142-155.
    22. Martín Besfamille & Pablo Sanguinetti & Diego Jorrat & Osmel Manzano, 2019. "How Do Subnational Governments React to Shocks to Revenue Sources? Evidence from Argentina," Documentos de Trabajo 522, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    23. J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods and Inferences," SpringerBriefs in Regional Science, in: Spatial Econometrics, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 95-119, Springer.
    24. Boschini, Anne & Pettersson, Jan & Roine, Jesper, 2013. "The Resource Curse and its Potential Reversal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-41.
    25. Paredes, Dusan & Rivera, Nathaly M., 2017. "Mineral taxes and the local public goods provision in mining communities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 328-339.
    26. Martín Besfamille & N. Grosman & D. Jorrat & O. Manzano & P. Sanguinetti, 2017. "Public Expenditures and Debt at the Subnational Level: Evidence of Fiscal Smoothing from Argentina," Documentos de Trabajo 482, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    27. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2006. "Resource windfalls, investment, and long-term income," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 117-128, June.
    28. Hughes, Helen, 1975. "Economic rents, the distribution of gains from mineral exploitation, and mineral development policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(11-12), pages 811-825.
    29. Atienza, Miguel & Fleming-Muñoz, David & Aroca, Patricio, 2021. "Territorial development and mining. Insights and challenges from the Chilean case," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    30. Fleming, David A. & Measham, Thomas G., 2013. "Disentangling the Natural Resources Curse: National and Regional Socioeconomic Impacts of Resource Windfalls," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150526, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    31. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Rosen, Harvey S, 1991. "Municipal Labor Demand in the Presence of Uncertainty: An Econometric Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 276-293, July.
    32. Oyarzo, Mauricio & Paredes, Dusan, 2021. "The impact of mining taxes on public education: Evidence for mining municipalities in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    33. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    34. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Empirical Studies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 175-188, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oyarzo, Mauricio & Paredes, Dusan, 2019. "Revisiting the link between resource windfalls and subnational crowding out for local mining economies in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Besfamille, Martín & Jorrat, Diego A. & Manzano, Osmel & Quiroga, Bernardo F. & Sanguinetti, Pablo, 2023. "How do subnational governments react to shocks to different revenue sources? Evidence from hydrocarbon-producing provinces in Argentina," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Martín Besfamille & N. Grosman & D. Jorrat & O. Manzano & P. Sanguinetti, 2017. "Public Expenditures and Debt at the Subnational Level: Evidence of Fiscal Smoothing from Argentina," Documentos de Trabajo 482, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "How Forward-Looking Are Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 97776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2019.
    5. Farhadi, Minoo & Islam, Md. Rabiul & Moslehi, Solmaz, 2015. "Economic Freedom and Productivity Growth in Resource-rich Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-126.
    6. Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Nounamo, Yann & Kamguia, Brice, 2022. "Governance in mitigating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality: A cross-country analysis of policy thresholds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    8. Laszlo Szalai, 2018. "Institutions and Resource-driven Development," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 39-53, June.
    9. Konte, Maty & Vincent, Rose Camille, 2021. "Mining and quality of public services: The role of local governance and decentralization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Jorge Gallego & Stanislao Maldonado & Lorena Trujillo, 2018. "Blessing a Curse? Institutional Reform and Resource Booms in Colombia," Working Papers 122, Peruvian Economic Association.
    11. Maldonado, Stanislao, 2014. "The Non-Monotonic Political Effects of Resource Booms," MPRA Paper 85649, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Dec 2017.
    12. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    13. Alejandro Esteller-Moré & Leonzio Rizzo, 2014. "US excise tax horizontal interdependence: yardstick versus tax competition," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(3), pages 711-737, May.
    14. Musayev, Vusal, 2014. "Commodity Price Shocks, Conflict and Growth: The Role of Institutional Quality and Political Violence," MPRA Paper 59786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tadadjeu, Sosson & Njangang, Henri & Ningaye, Paul & Nourou, Mohammadou, 2020. "Linking natural resource dependence and access to water and sanitation in African countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Avom, Désiré & Keneck-Massil, Joseph & Njangang, Henri & Nvuh-Njoya, Youssouf, 2022. "Why are some resource-rich countries more sophisticated than others? The role of the regime type and political ideology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & sargolzaie, Ali & Salehnia, Narges, 2022. "Natural resources: A curse on welfare?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Traviss Cassidy, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Oil Wealth on Development: Evidence from Petroleum Geology," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2745-2778.
    19. Persson, Lovisa, 2013. "Consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regim," Working Paper Series 2013:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Lars-Erik Borge & Per Tovmo, 2009. "Myopic or Constrained by Balanced-Budget Rules? The Intertemporal Spending Behavior of Norwegian Local Governments," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 65(2), pages 200-219, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s0038012122002695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.