IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceco/v50y2014icp13-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic security and democratic capital: Why do some democracies survive and others fail?

Author

Listed:
  • Jeitschko, Thomas D.
  • Linz, Susan J.
  • Noguera, Jose
  • Semykina, Anastasia

Abstract

We develop a theoretical framework where the chance of any given democratic society maintaining its democratic status is determined by two key factors: economic security and democratic capital. Our model predicts democracy breakdown is more likely (1) the lower the level of democratic capital, (2) the lower the anticipated growth in democracy, (3) the greater the anticipated growth after democracy breakdown, and finally, (4) the smaller the difference between anticipated growth in continued democracy and after democracy breakdown. We test the model using a newly constructed data set and the Polity IV data. We find that if expected economic growth under democracy is greater than anticipated economic growth under the alternative regime then the probability of breakdown is lower. Moreover, an increase in democratic capital decreases the probability of democracy breakdown. The country's most recent own democratic experience appears to have a more important impact on democracy survival, while the effect of foreign democratic capital cannot be distinguished from the time-specific shocks that are common to all countries in the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeitschko, Thomas D. & Linz, Susan J. & Noguera, Jose & Semykina, Anastasia, 2014. "Economic security and democratic capital: Why do some democracies survive and others fail?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:50:y:2014:i:c:p:13-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2014.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804314000238
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socec.2014.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AndrewE. Clark & Nicolai Kristensen & Niels Westergård-Nielsen, 2009. "Job Satisfaction and Co-worker Wages: Status or Signal?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 430-447, March.
    2. Steven Rosefielde, 2003. "The Riddle of Post-war Russian Economic Growth: Statistics Lied and Were Misconstrued," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 469-481.
    3. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 185-192, April.
    4. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521793797.
    5. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790321.
    6. David L. Epstein & Robert Bates & Jack Goldstone & Ida Kristensen & Sharyn O'Halloran, 2006. "Democratic Transitions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 551-569, July.
      • David Epstein & Robert H. Bates & Jack Goldstone & Ida Kristensen & Sharyn O'Halloran, 2004. "Democratic Transitions," CID Working Papers 101, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    8. Daniel Treisman, 2010. "Twenty Years of Political Transition," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-031, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gossel, Sean Joss, 2018. "FDI, democracy and corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 647-662.
    2. Christopher J. Boudreaux & Randall G. Holcombe, 2017. "Economic Institutions and the Durability of Democracy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 17-28, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.
    2. Sunde, Uwe & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 8315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Dmitry Ryvkin & Anastasia Semykina, 2017. "An experimental study of democracy breakdown, income and inequality," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 420-447, June.
    4. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
    5. Dmitry Ryvkin & Anastasia Semykina, 2015. "The chicken or the egg: An experimental study of democracy survival, income, and inequality," Working Papers wp2015_11_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    6. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    7. Anke Hoeffler & Mr. Robert H. Bates & Ms. Ghada Fayad, 2012. "Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2012/295, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Papaioannou, Elias & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2008. "Economic and social factors driving the third wave of democratization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 365-387, September.
    9. Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2017. "Do Democracies Provide Better Education? Revisiting the Democracy–Human Capital Link," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 186-199.
    10. Robert Mattes, 2014. "South Africa's Emerging Black Middle Class: A Harbinger of Political Change?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-147, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Lin, Faqin & Sim, Nicholas C.S., 2014. "Baltic Dry Index and the democratic window of opportunity," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 143-159.
    12. repec:fsu:wpaper:wp2013_12_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. John A. Doces & Christopher S. P. Magee, 2015. "Trade and Democracy: A Factor-Based Approach," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 407-425, March.
    14. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2018. "The Nexus Between Democracy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(3), pages 980-998, September.
    15. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2014. "Violence during democratization and the quality of democratic institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 226-247.
    16. Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre, 2020. "The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 87-111, October.
    17. Daniel Treisman, 2011. "Income, Democracy, and the Cunning of Reason," NBER Working Papers 17132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2012. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 389-399, May.
    19. Mattes, Robert, 2014. "South Africa’s Emerging Black Middle Class: A Harbinger of Political Change?," WIDER Working Paper Series 147, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A. & Yared, Pierre, 2009. "Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1043-1058, November.
    21. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Aid and institutions in transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 55-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy breakdown; Expectations; Economic security; Democratic capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:50:y:2014:i:c:p:13-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.