IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v38y2016icp474-484.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The volatility dynamics of spot and futures gold prices: Evidence from Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Kirkulak-Uludag, Berna
  • Lkhamazhapov, Zorikto

Abstract

We examine the long memory property and structural break in the spot and futures gold volatility in Russia from 2008 through 2013. We find strong evidence of long memory in the volatility of both spot and futures gold series. The break dates are associated with the recent global financial crisis. Moreover, we investigate the volatility spillover effect between the Russian spot and futures gold markets using the corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (cDCC). The findings show relatively high level of conditional correlation between spot and futures gold returns. This outcome decreases the portfolio diversification benefits for gold investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirkulak-Uludag, Berna & Lkhamazhapov, Zorikto, 2016. "The volatility dynamics of spot and futures gold prices: Evidence from Russia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 474-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:474-484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.07.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531916301428
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.07.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Precious metals-exchange rate volatility transmissions and hedging strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-647, October.
    2. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Malik, Farooq & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Risk management of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 435-441.
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    4. Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July.
    5. Robinson, P.M. & Henry, M., 1999. "Long And Short Memory Conditional Heteroskedasticity In Estimating The Memory Parameter Of Levels," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 299-336, June.
    6. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    7. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
    8. Brian M. Lucey & Charles Larkin & Fergal O'Connor, 2014. "Gold markets around the world - who spills over what, to whom, when?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 887-892, September.
    9. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    10. Berna Kirkulak Uludag & Zorikto Lkhamazhapov, 2014. "Long memory and structural breaks in the returns and volatility of gold: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3777-3787, November.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    12. Clifford M. Hurvich & Rohit Deo & Julia Brodsky, 1998. "The mean squared error of Geweke and Porter‐Hudak's estimator of the memory parameter of a long‐memory time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 19-46, January.
    13. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    14. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
    17. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    18. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    19. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Simple (but Effective) Tests Of Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks," Working Paper 1101, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    20. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Non-linear volatility dynamics and risk management of precious metals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 183-202.
    21. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2009. "World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5557-5566, December.
    22. Coakley, Jerry & Dollery, Jian & Kellard, Neil, 2008. "The role of long memory in hedging effectiveness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3075-3082, February.
    23. Hood, Matthew & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52.
    24. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    25. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    26. Dieter Hess & He Huang & Alexandra Niessen, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(2), pages 127-146, June.
    27. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Volatility transmission between gold and oil futures under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 113-121.
    28. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    29. Hess, Dieter E. & Huang, He & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," CFR Working Papers 08-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Does political risk matter for gold market fluctuations? A structural VAR analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berna Kirkulak-Uludag & Zorikto Lkhamazhapov, 2017. "Volatility Dynamics of Precious Metals: Evidence from Russia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(4), pages 300-317, August.
    2. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Long memory and structural breaks in modeling the return and volatility dynamics of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 207-218.
    3. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    4. Berna Kirkulak Uludag & Zorikto Lkhamazhapov, 2014. "Long memory and structural breaks in the returns and volatility of gold: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3777-3787, November.
    5. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    7. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Downside/upside price spillovers between precious metals: A vine copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 84-102.
    9. Walid Chkili, 2015. "Gold–oil prices co-movements and portfolio diversification implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2832-2845.
    10. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2022. "Stochastic structure of metal prices: Evidence from fractional integration non-linearities and breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Chkili, Walid, 2015. "Gold-oil prices co-movements and portfolio diversification implications," MPRA Paper 68110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Value-at-risk Predictions of Precious Metals with Long Memory Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 53229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Karanasos, Menelaos & Menla Ali, Faek & Margaronis, Zannis & Nath, Rajat, 2018. "Modelling time varying volatility spillovers and conditional correlations across commodity metal futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 246-256.
    16. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    17. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Boako, Gideon, 2017. "Long-range dependence in returns and volatility of global gold market amid financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 472(C), pages 188-202.
    18. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas, 2019. "Portfolio management and dependencies among precious metal markets: Evidence from a Copula quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Bhatia, Vaneet & Das, Debojyoti & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hasim, Haslifah M., 2018. "Do precious metal spot prices influence each other? Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 244-252.
    20. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:474-484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.