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A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience

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  • Fillmore, Ian

Abstract

Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a $15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a $15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between $9 and $11.

Suggested Citation

  • Fillmore, Ian, 2022. "A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 84-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:84-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage," Reports 55410, Congressional Budget Office.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Labor demand;

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J80 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - General

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