IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/recore/v108y2016icp156-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's low-carbon industrial transformation assessment based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Gengyuan
  • Hao, Yan
  • Zhou, Yun
  • Yang, Zhifeng
  • Zhang, Yan
  • Su, Meirong

Abstract

The growth in socioeconomic metabolism associated with industrialization is altering the functions of the biosphere, becoming the major drivers of global climate change. An environmental friendly or low-carbon-oriented industrial transition not only would largely improve the patterns and magnitude of physical exchanges among societies and their natural environment, but would also be inextricably linked with regional sustainable development policies which can be effective to achieve post-fossil carbon societies. Above all, several institutional innovations and rules, such as industrial symbiosis and low carbon pathway optimization should be considered in scenario analysis and path selection. In this study, a long term analysis focusing on the industrial system in China is presented. Carbon emission decomposition analysis is used to evaluate the potential of low carbon development, promote policies regarding regional sustainable development and construction of eco-industry. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition is applied to carbon emissions in the decomposition of time and space sequence. An analysis of the state of the art of climate change science and of the state of industrial symbiosis attempting to create effective industrial development paths reveals that the LMDI Decomposition method can provide crucial orientation for the negotiations towards a sustainable post fossil carbon societies. Three scenarios are designed for the analysis: the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, the Carbon Reduction (CR) scenario and the Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenario. Under the assumptions that the share of coal will decline dramatically under the CR and ILCE scenarios from 2009 to 2050 while the share of natural gas and renewable energy will be greatly increased, through the adjustment of energy structure, improvement of energy efficiency and transformation of technical energy merit, energy consumption demand and carbon emission trend in industrial sectors till 2050 in China is simulated, in order to provide the basis for low-carbon industrial transformation in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Gengyuan & Hao, Yan & Zhou, Yun & Yang, Zhifeng & Zhang, Yan & Su, Meirong, 2016. "China's low-carbon industrial transformation assessment based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 156-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:108:y:2016:i:c:p:156-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344916300222
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Liu, X.Q. & Ang, B.W. & Ong, H.L., 1992. "Interfuel substitution and decomposition of changes in industrial energy consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 689-696.
    3. Ang, B.W & Zhang, F.Q & Choi, Ki-Hong, 1998. "Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 489-495.
    4. Wu, Libo & Kaneko, Shinji & Matsuoka, Shunji, 2005. "Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China's energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: the relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 319-335, February.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Mu, A.R. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Accounting frameworks for tracking energy efficiency trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1209-1219, September.
    6. B. W. Ang & Ki-Hong Choi, 1997. "Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-73.
    7. Ma, Chunbo & Stern, David I., 2008. "China's changing energy intensity trend: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1037-1053, May.
    8. Wu, Libo & Kaneko, Shinji & Matsuoka, Shunji, 2006. "Dynamics of energy-related CO2 emissions in China during 1980 to 2002: The relative importance of energy supply-side and demand-side effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3549-3572, December.
    9. Hatzigeorgiou, Emmanouil & Polatidis, Heracles & Haralambopoulos, Dias, 2008. "CO2 emissions in Greece for 1990–2002: A decomposition analysis and comparison of results using the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 492-499.
    10. Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Zou, Ji, 2005. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957–2000," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-83.
    11. Donglan, Zha & Dequn, Zhou & Peng, Zhou, 2010. "Driving forces of residential CO2 emissions in urban and rural China: An index decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3377-3383, July.
    12. Lee, Kihoon & Oh, Wankeun, 2006. "Analysis of CO2 emissions in APEC countries: A time-series and a cross-sectional decomposition using the log mean Divisia method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2779-2787, November.
    13. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fleiter, Tobias & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Fan, Ying, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 821-832.
    14. Sobrino, Natalia & Monzon, Andres, 2014. "The impact of the economic crisis and policy actions on GHG emissions from road transport in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 486-498.
    15. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Ussanarassamee, Arjaree, 2004. "Decomposition of energy and CO2 intensities of Thai industry between 1981 and 2000," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 765-781, September.
    16. Dabo Guan & Stephan Klasen & Klaus Hubacek & Kuishuang Feng & Zhu Liu & Kebin He & Yong Geng & Qiang Zhang, 2014. "Determinants of stagnating carbon intensity in China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1017-1023, November.
    17. Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5892-5900, November.
    18. Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-9, October.
    19. Cahill, Caiman J. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2010. "Monitoring energy efficiency trends in European industry: Which top-down method should be used?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6910-6918, November.
    20. Zhao, Min & Tan, Lirong & Zhang, Weiguo & Ji, Minhe & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Lizhong, 2010. "Decomposing the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanghai using the LMDI method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2505-2510.
    21. O’ Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, Peng & Sweeney, John, 2012. "The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral decomposition from 1990 to 2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 256-267.
    22. Chen, Wenying & Xu, Ruina, 2010. "Clean coal technology development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2123-2130, May.
    23. Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wu, Gang & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 683-691, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Jing & Wu, Jingli & He, Tao & Li, Lingyue & Han, Dezhi & Wang, Zhiqi & Wu, Jinhu, 2016. "Energy gases and related carbon emissions in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 140-148.
    2. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related Industrial CO 2 Emissions in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Du, Kerui & Xie, Chunping & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2017. "A comparison of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trends among provinces in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 19-25.
    3. Xu, Xianshuo & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Kang, Jidong, 2014. "Changes of energy-related GHG emissions in China: An empirical analysis from sectoral perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 298-307.
    4. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2013. "Index decomposition analysis applied to CO2 emission studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-329.
    5. Fernández González, P., 2015. "Exploring energy efficiency in several European countries. An attribution analysis of the Divisia structural change index," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 364-374.
    6. Zhang, Wei & Li, Ke & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Wenrui & Gao, Hui, 2016. "Decomposition of intensity of energy-related CO2 emission in Chinese provinces using the LMDI method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 369-381.
    7. Vaninsky, Alexander, 2014. "Factorial decomposition of CO2 emissions: A generalized Divisia index approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 389-400.
    8. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying & Yu, Song-Min, 2014. "Energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction in China's 11th Five-Year Plan: A performance evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 348-359.
    9. Wang, Qunwei & Wang, Yizhong & Zhou, P. & Wei, Hongye, 2017. "Whole process decomposition of energy-related SO2 in Jiangsu Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 679-687.
    10. Yang Yu & Qiuyue Kong, 2017. "Analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1691-1707, September.
    11. Ren, Shenggang & Fu, Xiang & Chen, XiaoHong, 2012. "Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1134-1145.
    12. Robaina Alves, Margarita & Moutinho, Victor, 2013. "Decomposition analysis and Innovative Accounting Approach for energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions intensity over 1996–2009 in Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 775-787.
    13. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Xie, Dejun & Li, Ji & Miao, Lixin & Yang, Peng, 2017. "Sector decomposition of China’s national economic carbon emissions and its policy implication for national ETS development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 855-867.
    14. Li, Aijun & Hu, Mingming & Wang, Mingjian & Cao, Yinxue, 2016. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Eastern and Central China: A temporal and a cross-regional decomposition analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 284-297.
    15. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "An analysis of the driving forces of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 838-849.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    17. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Divisia index) decomposition. The activity revaluation approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 741-750.
    18. Fernández González, P. & Presno, M.J. & Landajo, M., 2015. "Regional and sectoral attribution to percentage changes in the European Divisia carbonization index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1437-1452.
    19. Ma, Chunbo, 2010. "Account for sector heterogeneity in China's energy consumption: Sector price indices vs. GDP deflator," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 24-29, January.
    20. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2009. "Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4523-4539, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:108:y:2016:i:c:p:156-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kai Meng (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.