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How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks in the case of the United States? Evidence from NASDAQ and DJIA

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  • Jean Louis, Rosmy
  • Eldomiaty, Tarek
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we use both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to test the robustness of Binswanger's (2004c) finding that US stock market dynamics are governed mostly by nonfundamental shocks or speculative bubbles after the 1982 debt crisis. We estimate a total of 72 SVAR models and 36 SVECM models. We determine that the findings are robust indeed and that fundamental shocks have become less and less important over the years, irrespective of which US stock market index is considered.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 310-322

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:3:p:310-322

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

    Related research

    Keywords: DJIA NASDAQ Fundamental and non-fundamental variables SVAR SVECM;

    References

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    1. Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
    3. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 90-99, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
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    6. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    7. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
    8. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    10. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
    13. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 651-661.
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    Cited by:
    1. Morris, John J. & Alam, Pervaiz, 2012. "Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-255.

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