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When guidance changes: Government stances and public beliefs

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  • Rafkin, Charlie
  • Shreekumar, Advik
  • Vautrey, Pierre-Luc

Abstract

Governments often make early recommendations about issues that remain uncertain. Do governments’ early positions affect how much people believe the latest recommendations? We investigate this question using an incentivized online experiment with 1900 US respondents in early April 2020. We present all participants with the latest CDC projection about coronavirus death counts. We randomize exposure to information that highlights how President Trump previously downplayed the coronavirus threat. When the President’s inconsistency is salient, participants are less likely to revise their prior beliefs about death counts from the projection. They also report lower trust in the government. These results align with a simple model of signal extraction from government communication, and have implications for the design of changing guidelines in other settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafkin, Charlie & Shreekumar, Advik & Vautrey, Pierre-Luc, 2021. "When guidance changes: Government stances and public beliefs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:196:y:2021:i:c:s0047272720301833
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104319
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    2. Leonardo Bursztyn & Aakaash Rao & Christopher Roth & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2023. "Opinions as Facts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1832-1864.
    3. Raphael Bruce & Alexsandros Cavgias & Luis Meloni & Mario Remigio, 2021. "Under Pressure: Women's Leadership During the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_19, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
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    6. Alex Armand & Mattia Fracchia & Pedro C. Vicente, 2024. "Let's call! Using the phone to increase vaccine acceptance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 82-106, January.

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