IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v74y2022ics0176268022000660.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Brouwer, Nils
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

We use a survey among Dutch households to analyze trust in the European Central Bank (ECB). Our results confirm a positive association between respondents’ right-wing ideology, knowledge of the ECB, and trust in other European institutions on the one hand and trust in the ECB on the other. A novel result is that we also find that individuals who were clients of a bank that received government support during the global financial crisis trust the ECB more. Furthermore, our results suggest that inflation expectations of respondents who trust the ECB are more in line with the ECB’s inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0176268022000660
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268022000660
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102262?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etienne Farvaque & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Alexander Mihailov, 2017. "Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 654-677, April.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    3. Daniel Fernandes & John G. Lynch & Richard G. Netemeyer, 2014. "Financial Literacy, Financial Education, and Downstream Financial Behaviors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 1861-1883, August.
    4. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    6. Osili, Una Okonkwo & Paulson, Anna, 2014. "Crises and confidence: Systemic banking crises and depositor behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 646-660.
    7. Tim Kaiser & Lukas Menkhoff, 2017. "Does Financial Education Impact Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior, and If So, When?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 611-630.
    8. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Edith, 2014. "The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 286-303.
    9. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 1-37, December.
    10. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Explaining central bank trust in an inflation-targeting country: the case of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 27-48.
    11. Karl Kaltenthaler & Christopher J. Anderson & William J. Miller, 2010. "Accountability and Independent Central Banks: Europeans and Distrust of the European Central Bank," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 1261-1281, November.
    12. Karl Kaltenthaler & Christopher J. Anderson & William J. Miller, 2010. "Accountability and Independent Central Banks: Europeans and Distrust of the European Central Bank," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 1261-1281, November.
    13. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James MacGee, 2020. "Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2020-11, Bank of Canada.
    14. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    15. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Felix Roth & Lars Jonung, 2022. "Public Support for the Euro and Trust in the ECB: The First Two Decades of the Common Currency," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 1-19, Springer.
    17. Bursian, Dirk & Faia, Ester, 2018. "Trust in the monetary authority," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 66-79.
    18. Dirk Bursian & Sven Fürth, 2015. "Trust Me! I am a European Central Banker," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1503-1530, December.
    19. Carin Cruijsen & Jakob Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "Trust and Financial Crisis Experiences," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 577-600, June.
    20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
    21. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    22. Carin van der Cruijsen & Jakob de Haan & Ria Roerink, 2021. "Financial knowledge and trust in financial institutions," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 680-714, June.
    23. John Hudson, 2006. "Institutional Trust and Subjective Well‐Being across the EU," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 43-62, February.
    24. Michael Ehrmann & Michel Soudan & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Explaining European Union Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank in Normal and Crisis Times," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 781-807, July.
    25. Andrew Haldane & Michael McMahon, 2018. "Central Bank Communications and the General Public," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 578-583, May.
    26. Zeev Kril & David Leiser & Avia Spivak, 2016. "What Determines the Credibility of the Central Bank of Israel in the Public Eye?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 67-93, March.
    27. Mellina, Sathya & Schmidt, Tobias, 2018. "The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 32/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio & Downs, Julie S. & Fischhoff, Baruch & Armantier, Olivier, 2012. "The effect of question wording on consumers’ reported inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 749-757.
    29. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    30. Adriel Jost, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Too Complex for the Public? Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 2017-15, Swiss National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Julien Pinter & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment," Staff Working Papers 23-36, Bank of Canada.
    2. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2023. "Supporting African Union: Do Macroeconomic Fluctuations matter?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/071, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2023. "Central bank communication and public trust: The case of ECB speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2023. "What do politicians think of technocratic institutions? Experimental Evidence on the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23201, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Carin van der Cruijsen & Jakob de Haan & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The impact of high inflation on trust in national politics and central banks," Working Papers 762, DNB.
    6. Irena Munteanu & Amelia Petrică, 2022. "Aspects Regarding the Monetary Policy in The European Union's Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 933-942, Decembrie.
    7. Popova, Olga & See, Sarah Grace & Nikolova, Milena & Otrachshenko, Vladimir, 2023. "The Societal Costs of Inflation and Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 16541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Zhuo Wenjun, 2023. "Circulation Expectations, Farmer Trust, and Farmers’ Contract Choice Behavior," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Isabelle Salle & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab," NBER Working Papers 31996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Blinder, Alan & De Haan, Jakob & ,, 2022. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    4. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Angino, Siria & Secola, Stefania, 2022. "Instinctive versus reflective trust in the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2660, European Central Bank.
    6. Siria Angino & Federico M Ferrara & Stefania Secola, 2022. "The cultural origins of institutional trust: The case of the European Central Bank," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 212-235, June.
    7. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    9. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2022. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202245, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Edith, 2014. "The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 286-303.
    11. Lena Dräger, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," CESifo Working Paper Series 10713, CESifo.
    12. Mochhoury, Sarah, 2023. "Central bank communication and trust: an experimental study on the European Central Bank and the general public," Working Paper Series 2824, European Central Bank.
    13. Dräger, Lena & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-709, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. In Do Hwang & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Explaining central bank trust in an inflation-targeting country: the case of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 27-48.
    16. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 1-37, December.
    17. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    18. Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    19. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2022. "Households’ inflation perceptions and expectations: survey evidence from New Zealand," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 185-217, February.
    20. Braun, Benjamin, 2016. "Speaking to the people? Money, trust, and central bank legitimacy in the age of quantitative easing," MPIfG Discussion Paper 16/12, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank; ECB; General public; Trust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0176268022000660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.