IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v77y2023ics0927538x22002256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the zoo of predictors for mutual fund performance in China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zhiyong
  • Rao, Xiao

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive and systematic empirical examination of the variables that can predict the cross-sectional alphas of the mutual funds in the Chinese market. From 47 predictors considered, it is found that about half show significant predictive ability for ex-post fund alphas of one, three, and six months. This finding is based on alpha spreads from quantile sorts or the slopes from cross-sectional regressions. Further, arbitrage activity may impede the predictability. Finally, the predictive characteristics identified in this study have not yet been fully learned by investors, whereas investors make their investment decisions based largely on past one-year returns. This finding implies the presence of capital misallocation in mutual fund investment in the Chinese market. Our results should be highly informative to fund rating agencies and professional fund investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhiyong & Rao, Xiao, 2023. "Exploring the zoo of predictors for mutual fund performance in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:77:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x22002256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X22002256
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101930?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher S Jones & Haitao Mo, 2021. "Out-of-Sample Performance of Mutual Fund Predictors [Has U.S. corporate bond market liquidity deteriorated?]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 149-193.
    2. Marcin Kacperczyk & Amit Seru, 2007. "Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-528, April.
    3. James J. Choi & Adriana Z. Robertson, 2020. "What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1965-2020, August.
    4. Lu Zheng, 1999. "Is Money Smart? A Study of Mutual Fund Investors' Fund Selection Ability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 901-933, June.
    5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    7. Randolph B. Cohen & Joshua D. Coval & Ľuboš Pástor, 2005. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1057-1096, June.
    8. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    9. Itzhak Ben-David & Jiacui Li & Andrea Rossi & Yang Song, 2022. "What Do Mutual Fund Investors Really Care About?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1723-1774.
    10. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    11. Jun, Xiao & Ren, He & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2021. "Deriving managerial skills by dissecting holding changes of mutual funds: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2007. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 359-400.
    13. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
    14. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    15. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2008. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2379-2416, November.
    16. Nicholas Barberis & Abhiroop Mukherjee & Baolian Wang, 2016. "Prospect Theory and Stock Returns: An Empirical Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 3068-3107.
    17. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    18. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    19. Kaniel, Ron & Parham, Robert, 2017. "WSJ Category Kings – The impact of media attention on consumer and mutual fund investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 337-356.
    20. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1455-1484, August.
    21. Xi Dong & Shu Feng & Ronnie Sadka, 2019. "Liquidity Risk and Mutual Fund Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1020-1041, March.
    22. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    23. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.
    24. Kaniel, Ron & Lin, Zihan & Pelger, Markus & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2023. "Machine-learning the skill of mutual fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 94-138.
    25. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2019. "Size and value in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 48-69.
    26. Hitesh Doshi & Redouane Elkamhi & Mikhail Simutin, 2015. "Managerial Activeness and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 156-184.
    27. Christopher S Jones & Haitao Mo & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Out-of-Sample Performance of Mutual Fund Predictors," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 149-193.
    28. Bai, John (Jianqiu) & Ma, Linlin & Mullally, Kevin A. & Solomon, David H., 2019. "What a difference a (birth) month makes: The relative age effect and fund manager performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 200-221.
    29. Hao Jiang & Michela Verardo, 2018. "Does Herding Behavior Reveal Skill? An Analysis of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 2229-2269, October.
    30. Jiang, Hao & Verardo, Michela, 2018. "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86372, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Hao Jiang & Lu Zheng, 2018. "Active Fundamental Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4688-4719.
    32. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2010. "Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1915-1947, October.
    33. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    34. Alexander Dyck & Karl V. Lins & Lukasz Pomorski, 2013. "Does Active Management Pay? New International Evidence," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 200-228.
    35. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Terrance Odean, 2016. "Which Factors Matter to Investors? Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2600-2642.
    36. Louis K. C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 2002. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1407-1437.
    37. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    38. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
    39. Robert Kosowski, 2011. "Do Mutual Funds Perform When It Matters Most to Investors? US Mutual Fund Performance and Risk in Recessions and Expansions," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 607-664.
    40. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    41. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2011. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2575-2616.
    42. Richard B. Evans & Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, 2012. "Institutional Investors and Mutual Fund Governance: Evidence from Retail--Institutional Fund Twins," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3530-3571.
    43. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, August.
    44. Yu, Bin & Shen, Yifan & Jin, Xuejun & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Does prospect theory explain mutual fund performance? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    45. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 523-557, December.
    46. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    47. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    48. Daniel Bergstresser & John M. R. Chalmers & Peter Tufano, 2009. "Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Brokers in the Mutual Fund Industry," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4129-4156, October.
    49. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Ming Huang & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2004. "Does Fund Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? The Role of Liquidity and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1276-1302, December.
    50. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Blake, Christopher R., 2011. "Holdings Data, Security Returns, and the Selection of Superior Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 341-367, April.
    51. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    52. von Reibnitz, Anna, 2017. "When Opportunity Knocks: Cross-Sectional Return Dispersion and Active Fund Performance," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 303-356, September.
    53. Mikhail Simutin, 2014. "Cash Holdings and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1425-1464.
    54. Gerard Hoberg & Nitin Kumar & Nagpurnanand Prabhala, 2018. "Mutual Fund Competition, Managerial Skill, and Alpha Persistence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1896-1929.
    55. Jeffrey A. Busse & Paul J. Irvine, 2006. "Bayesian Alphas and Mutual Fund Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2251-2288, October.
    56. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    57. Joshua M. Pollet & Mungo Wilson, 2008. "How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2941-2969, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    2. Kaniel, Ron & Lin, Zihan & Pelger, Markus & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2023. "Machine-learning the skill of mutual fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 94-138.
    3. Massa, Massimo & Cheng, Si & Zhang, Hong, 2021. "Tax Evasion and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the FATCA and Offshore Mutual Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 15747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Dahm, Laura K. & Sorhage, Christoph, 2015. "Milk or wine: Mutual funds' (dis)economies of life," CFR Working Papers 15-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Jiang, Hao & Verardo, Michela, 2013. "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119034, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    7. Bai, John Jianqiu & Tang, Yuehua & Wan, Chi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2022. "Fund manager skill in an era of globalization: Offshore concentration and fund performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 18-40.
    8. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh & Lucian A. Taylor, 2017. "Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1483-1528, August.
    9. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Brown, Stephen J. & Sotes-Paladino, Juan & Wang, Jiaguo(George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Starting on the wrong foot: Seasonality in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 133-150.
    11. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
    12. Hao Jiang & Michela Verardo, "undated". "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," FMG Discussion Papers dp720, Financial Markets Group.
    13. Khaled Obaid & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2021. "Informativeness of mutual fund advertisements: Does advertising communicate fund quality to investors?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 203-236, March.
    14. Lan, Chunhua & Moneta, Fabio & Wermers, Russ, 2018. "Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management," CFR Working Papers 15-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2018.
    15. Loban, Lidia & Sarto, José Luis & Vicente, Luis, 2021. "Determinants of non-compliant equity funds with EU portfolio concentration limits," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Russ Wermers & Tong Yao & Jane Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3490-3529.
    17. Jiang, George J. & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R. & Zhang, Huacheng, 2021. "Stock-selection timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    20. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2022. "Mutual fund performance persistence: Factor models and portfolio size," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual fund; Return predictability; Investor behavior; Chinese market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:77:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x22002256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.