Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

Contents:

Author Info

  • Harry Mamaysky
  • Matthew Spiegel
  • Hong Zhang
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfolio managers will produce above market returns for their investors. This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimated alphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the best and worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimation error. This problem can be attenuated by back testing the statistical model fund by fund. The back test used here requires a statistical model to exhibit some past predictive success for a particular fund before it is allowed to make predictions about that fund in the current period. Another estimation problem concerns the use of a single statistical model for all available mutual funds. Since no one statistical model is likely to fit every fund, the result is a great deal of misspecification error. This paper shows that the combined use of an OLS and Kalman filter model increases the number of funds with predictable out of sample alphas by about 60%. Overall, a strategy that uses very modest ex-ante filters to eliminate funds whose parameters likely derive primarily from estimation error produces an out of sample risk-adjusted return of over 4% per annum. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfm018
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 359-400

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:11:y:2007:i:3:p:359-400

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
    Fax: 01865 267 985
    Email:
    Web page: http://rof.oxfordjournals.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
    2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2009. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," NBER Working Papers 14903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    5. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
    6. Tony Chieh-Tse Hou, 2012. "Return persistence and investment timing decisions in Taiwanese domestic equity mutual funds," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(9), pages 873-891, September.
    7. Ekholm, Anders G., 2012. "Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-358.
    8. Nik Tuzov & Frederi Viens, 2011. "Mutual fund performance: false discoveries, bias, and power," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 137-169, May.
    9. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2012. "The cross-section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," CFR Working Papers 09-03 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:11:y:2007:i:3:p:359-400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.