Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas
AbstractThis paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfolio managers will produce above market returns for their investors. This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimated alphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the best and worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimation error. This problem can be attenuated by back testing the statistical model fund by fund. The back test used here requires a statistical model to exhibit some past predictive success for a particular fund before it is allowed to make predictions about that fund in the current period. Another estimation problem concerns the use of a single statistical model for all available mutual funds. Since no one statistical model is likely to fit every fund, the result is a great deal of misspecification error. This paper shows that the combined use of an OLS and Kalman filter model increases the number of funds with predictable out of sample alphas by about 60%. Overall, a strategy that uses very modest ex-ante filters to eliminate funds whose parameters likely derive primarily from estimation error produces an out of sample risk-adjusted return of over 4% per annum. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.
Volume (Year): 11 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2011.
"Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2575-2616.
- Ekholm, Anders G., 2012. "Portfolio returns and manager activity: How to decompose tracking error into security selection and market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 349-358.
- Tony Chieh-Tse Hou, 2012. "Return persistence and investment timing decisions in Taiwanese domestic equity mutual funds," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(9), pages 873-891, September.
- Nik Tuzov & Frederi Viens, 2011. "Mutual fund performance: false discoveries, bias, and power," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 137-169, May.
- Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2012. "The cross-section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," CFR Working Papers 09-03 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
- Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
- Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.