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The role of loan portfolio losses and bank capital for Asian financial system resilience

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  • Rösch, Daniel
  • Scheule, Harald

Abstract

This paper analyses the systemic risk in relation to bank lending for Asian economies. The methodology complements existing market-based systemic risk measures by providing measures based on accounting information that regulators typically collect. Loan loss provisions of banks are decomposed into (i) a prediction component that is based on observable bank characteristics, and (ii) two frailty components: a bank-specific systematic factor based on the assumption that a bank's asset portfolio is diversified and a systemic factor. Systemic risk is measured as the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of the financial system based on a simulation model that takes into account the current condition of banks in the financial system, the absolute size and the capitalisation of financial institutions, as well as the sensitivity to systematic and systemic frailty risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "The role of loan portfolio losses and bank capital for Asian financial system resilience," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 289-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:40:y:2016:i:pb:p:289-305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.01.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christina Bui, 2018. "Bank Regulation and Financial Stability," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2018.
    3. Lee, Yongwoong & Yang, Kisung, 2019. "Modeling diversification and spillovers of loan portfolios' losses by LHP approximation and copula," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo, 2020. "A Comprehensive Stability Indicator for Banks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Bui, Christina & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "The value of bank capital buffers in maintaining financial system resilience," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 23-40.
    6. Necmi Kemal Avkiran & Lin Mi, 2017. "The Rising Systemic Importance of Chinese Banks: Should the World Be Concerned?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(4), pages 427-440, December.
    7. Xu, Qifa & Chen, Lu & Jiang, Cuixia & Yuan, Jing, 2018. "Measuring systemic risk of the banking industry in China: A DCC-MIDAS-t approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 13-31.
    8. Lyazat TALIMOVA & Gauhar KALKABAYEVA, 2017. "Bank Lending under Macroeconomic Instability Analysis of the Situation in Kazakhstan," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(4(26)), pages 1345-1349.
    9. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    10. Gauhar Kalkabayeva & Anar Kurmanalina & Zhanar Gusmanova, 2017. "Current State and Forecasting of the Development of Bank Crediting in Kazakhstan," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(4(26)), pages 1161-1166.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; Bank capital; Bank lending; Commercial banks; Credit portfolio risk; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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